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Even now, despite the economic difficulties, the Tories are still preferred to Labour on questions of economic competence. That's before any economic recovery.
More people blame the last Labour government for the deficit than blame the Coalition.
Cameron beats Ed Miliband on nearly every measure of what it takes to be Prime Minister.
Ed Miliband is not seen as a PM-in-waiting. His ratings have hardly improved since he was first elected Labour leader.
On welfare and immigration Labour is still out of touch with voters – not least in its own heartland constituencies.
Whether in London against Boris or in Scotland against Alex Salmond, Labour is struggling to win the big match ups.
Labour is refusing to give the people a referendum on Europe.
Reasons like those listed above should give Tory members hope. The next election is far from lost. It's not going to be easy for reasons that ConHome has warned about for a long time… but victory is possible. A precondition, however, is party unity and in today's Times (£) I set out two ways of achieving unity.
Once these two things had been done Cameron would be free to do what will be necessary to win the next election and devise policies for that group of voters that Ed Miliband correctly called the squeezed middle. If the next Tory manifesto is focused on energy prices, housing costs and consumer rights – as well as protecting the NHS and pensions, a united Eurosceptic Tory Party might just prosper.