Rules: Only one player needed. Must reside at 10 Downing Street SW1. Dice required. Pencil and paper may help.
Stage One, Option 1: Decide to throw the by-election. Your thinking is that Carswell is going to win it anyway [1] and that, since fighting the seat hard and losing it is a bigger blow to your authority than not fighting it hard and losing it, no real campaigning effort should be put in.
- Outcome: The constituency is handed to UKIP.
- Conservative MPs say: “Shameful”. “Disgraceful.” “Cowardly.” “Appalling not to take on the traitor Carswell.” “Crazy to let Farage get away with it.” “Questions must be asked at the highest level.” “Shapps must go.” “Always said Cameron was useless.” “I have a letter for Graham Brady.” “What’s Farage’s e-mail address?”
- Lose 1000 points.
– – –
- Stage One, Option 2: Throw the kitchen sink at fighting the seat. It would help to find a brilliant candidate, though this may not make much difference [2]. This person must either live locally and know the constituency inside out, or be a feverishly-popular national celebrity, such as the Duchess of Cambridge [3], Gru, or Sir Geoff Hurst.
- Outcome: None at this stage.
- Conservative MPs say: “Brilliant choice! Fabulous! Outstanding! We’re going to win! (On the record.) “Er, um, not sure about this one, old boy.” (Off the record.)
- No points won or lost.
– – –
Stage Two, Option 1: Fight a nice clean campaign based on the Government’s policies and local issues.
- Outcome 1: Win!
- Conservative MPs say: “Told you we would win! We’re on our way! Give Shapps a peerage! Cameron is a stock whose value has always been badly underestimated…Cameron is a vintage who is maturing nicely…(etc).”
- Win 1000 points.
Outcome 2: Lose!
- Conservative MPs say: “Told you we would lose!” “Said we’d picked the wrong candidate.” “EU referendum now.” “This is the end of the Conservative Party.” “Questions must be asked at the highest level.” “Shapps must go.” “Get me David Davis.” “Always said Cameron was useless.” “I have a letter for Graham Brady, and so has my neighbour.” “What’s Farage’s phone number?”
- Lose 1000 points.
– – –
- Stage Two, Option 2: Fight a filthy LibDem-style campaign based on Carswell really living in London [4], etc.
- Outcome 1: Win!
- Conservative MPs say: “Told you we would win! That’ll show him! We’re on our way! Give Shapps a peerage! Cameron is a stock whose value has always been badly underestimated…Cameron is a vintage who is maturing nicely…Take Boris off my Christmas card list (etc).”
- Win 750 points. (Not 1000 – since though the short-term effects of winning are excellent, the long-term effects of poisoning relations with the conservative-leaning wing of UKIP may not be.)
- Outcome 2: Lose!
- Conservative MPs say: “Told you we would lose!” “Said we’d picked the wrong candidate.” “This is the end of the Conservative Party.” “Questions must be asked at the highest level.” “Shapps must go.” “Always said Cameron was useless.” “Get me Adam Afriyie.” “I have a letter for Graham Brady, so has my neighbour, so has the entire fourth floor of Portcullis House.” “Get me the SatNav and find Farage’s home address.”
- Lose 10,000 points.
[1] See today’s Survation poll.
[2] See Boris’s ratings as the potential Conservative candidate in today’s Survation Poll.
[3] Ineligible.
[4] See James Forsyth’s Mail on Sunday column.