Keiran Pedley is Director of Politics at Ipsos MORI.
In our latest Ipsos MORI Political Pulse survey, taken between November 19 and 23rd, we put 14 policy areas to the public and asked them to rate the Conservatives and Labour on each issue using a ten-point scale.
A score of ten indicated that the party has ‘all the right policies’ on the subject, and a score of zero indicated that they had ‘all the wrong policies’.
When we look at the proportion of Britons that think each party has the ‘right policies’ – that is, those scoring a six or above on each issue – Labour leads the Conservatives by five points or more on fighting poverty (+10 points ahead), dealing with housing (+5), the NHS (+5) and public transport (+6).
The Conservatives lead Labour by five points or more on managing the economy (+7), plus security and defence (+6). However, what is most striking about the results is the views of each party’s supporters on their own side.
To put it simply, 2019 Conservative voters are not happy with how the party is managing immigration. Across the 14 issues polled, it was the only issue where 2019 Conservative voters were more negative than positive about the party’s policies. [See the chart at the top of this piece.]
Fifty-one per cent of 2019 Conservatives gave the party a score of 0 to 4 on the issue, with 31 per cent giving them a score of 6 out of 10 or more. In contrast, there was not a single issue where 2019 Labour voters were more negative about Labour’s policies than positive.
The Conservatives’ issue with immigration is reinforced when we look at favourability ratings for leading Conservative politicians.
Priti Patel is the only senior Conservative in our survey with net negative favourability ratings amongst 2019 Conservatives (-8). Thirty eight per cent are unfavourable towards the Home Secretary and 30 per cent favourable.
Meanwhile, Rishi Sunak holds a net rating of +50 with 2019 Conservatives, with Boris Johnson on +20, Health Sajid Javid on +30 and Liz Truss on +15. It is possible that perceptions of Patel amongst this group are linked to the immigration figures above, although we cannot say that for certain from this poll.
None of this means that Conservative voters are suddenly going to flock to Labour over the issue of immigration, though. In fact, across the 14 issues in our poll, 2019 Conservative voters are most critical of Labour on that very subject. [See the chart at the bottom of this piece.]
Sixty-five per cent of 2019 Conservative voters give the Labour Party a score of 0 to four out of 10 on this issue – the worst score for Labour amongst that group.
This compares to 60 per cent on ‘managing the economy’, 56 per cent on ‘Britain’s relationship with the EU’, 52 per cent on crime and a further 52 per cent on ‘defence and national security’. Meanwhile, just one in ten Conservative voters from 2019 are favourable towardsKeir Starmer.
Perhaps, then, the threat to the Conservatives on this issue will not come from Labour. With Nigel Farage threatening the prospect of a political comeback, some Conservatives are likely to be nervous. But regardless of whether Farage returns or not, the data clearly shows that the subject of immigration is an issue for those who voted Conservative in 2019. The political implications of this are yet to be seen.
Keiran Pedley is Director of Politics at Ipsos MORI.
In our latest Ipsos MORI Political Pulse survey, taken between November 19 and 23rd, we put 14 policy areas to the public and asked them to rate the Conservatives and Labour on each issue using a ten-point scale.
A score of ten indicated that the party has ‘all the right policies’ on the subject, and a score of zero indicated that they had ‘all the wrong policies’.
When we look at the proportion of Britons that think each party has the ‘right policies’ – that is, those scoring a six or above on each issue – Labour leads the Conservatives by five points or more on fighting poverty (+10 points ahead), dealing with housing (+5), the NHS (+5) and public transport (+6).
The Conservatives lead Labour by five points or more on managing the economy (+7), plus security and defence (+6). However, what is most striking about the results is the views of each party’s supporters on their own side.
To put it simply, 2019 Conservative voters are not happy with how the party is managing immigration. Across the 14 issues polled, it was the only issue where 2019 Conservative voters were more negative than positive about the party’s policies. [See the chart at the top of this piece.]
Fifty-one per cent of 2019 Conservatives gave the party a score of 0 to 4 on the issue, with 31 per cent giving them a score of 6 out of 10 or more. In contrast, there was not a single issue where 2019 Labour voters were more negative about Labour’s policies than positive.
The Conservatives’ issue with immigration is reinforced when we look at favourability ratings for leading Conservative politicians.
Priti Patel is the only senior Conservative in our survey with net negative favourability ratings amongst 2019 Conservatives (-8). Thirty eight per cent are unfavourable towards the Home Secretary and 30 per cent favourable.
Meanwhile, Rishi Sunak holds a net rating of +50 with 2019 Conservatives, with Boris Johnson on +20, Health Sajid Javid on +30 and Liz Truss on +15. It is possible that perceptions of Patel amongst this group are linked to the immigration figures above, although we cannot say that for certain from this poll.
None of this means that Conservative voters are suddenly going to flock to Labour over the issue of immigration, though. In fact, across the 14 issues in our poll, 2019 Conservative voters are most critical of Labour on that very subject. [See the chart at the bottom of this piece.]
Sixty-five per cent of 2019 Conservative voters give the Labour Party a score of 0 to four out of 10 on this issue – the worst score for Labour amongst that group.
This compares to 60 per cent on ‘managing the economy’, 56 per cent on ‘Britain’s relationship with the EU’, 52 per cent on crime and a further 52 per cent on ‘defence and national security’. Meanwhile, just one in ten Conservative voters from 2019 are favourable towardsKeir Starmer.
Perhaps, then, the threat to the Conservatives on this issue will not come from Labour. With Nigel Farage threatening the prospect of a political comeback, some Conservatives are likely to be nervous. But regardless of whether Farage returns or not, the data clearly shows that the subject of immigration is an issue for those who voted Conservative in 2019. The political implications of this are yet to be seen.