Yesterday, the Daily Telegraph reported that Downing Street had “opened the door to a U-turn on onshore wind farms”, after Labour indicated it would back an amendment to that effect tabled by rebel Conservative MPs.
This would be good policy, as William Atkinson previously explained.
It’s also not the first time the Opposition have intervened in this way. Lisa Nandy, the Shadow Secretary for Levelling Up, previously suggested that Labour would help to vote down the abysmal planning reform amendment tabled by Theresa Villiers, Bob Seely, and the rest of the “local patriots”.
This too would be good policy, as Paul Goodman previously explained.
But stepping back from the specific content of the amendments, this is an absolutely extraordinary position for a government to find itself in just three years after being returned with a handsome, even historic, overall majority. Conservative discipline is fraying to such an extent that any sufficiently organised and motivated caucus of backbenchers can seriously threaten any of its legislation.
There are several possible reasons for this. Boris Johnson’s vision for government was always longer on slogans than specifics, and MPs have grown restive after three years of getting very little done. Rishi Sunak finally reached Number Ten very much as the candidate of last resort, and he never sold MPs or the membership on any sort of coherent vision they might have united around.
But whatever the actual balance of the causes, it seems unlikely that two years of painful cuts and tax increases is going to make the parliamentary Conservative Party any less fractious. Which could make life very difficult for the Prime Minister if these interventions are the start of a bigger strategy by Labour of actively intervening in Tory feuds, rather than letting various rebellions sink different bits of the Government’s agenda.
However, it could also be an opportunity for Sunak, if he’s willing and able to adapt to so dramatic a shift in political circumstances. As I put it elsewhere:
“The simple question for the cabinet is this: do they think the Levelling Up Bill is worth passing? Will it be good for the country? If so, it is their duty to get it through, even if it means facing down the “local patriots” on their own back benches.”
If the Government has policies it thinks will be good for the country, and Labour is prepared to vote for them where mutinous Tories are not, then it should simply press ahead with them. Ministers should have learned by now that there is nothing to be gained by appeasing the mutineers.
The planning amendment is proof of that. Johnson scrapped his full-fat proposals, and dismissed Robert Jenrick, to stave off a NIMBY revolt. Michael Gove then put considerable effort into watering down the Government’s plans in order to try and get a bare-minimum offer through.
Instead, the rebels have banked every concessions and, emboldened, mounted an outright attack on what parts of the existing planning system actually get houses built.
Collaborating with Labour to pass Bills will expose Tory divisions. But there is no getting around the fact that those divisions exist, and little to be gained by papering them over at the expense of getting nothing done and demolishing the Party’s support amongst working-age voters.
The question is whether the Prime Minister has the instincts, the skills, and the will to pick the right battles, and strike the right deals, to reach an election in 2024 with some achievements to his name.