Ben Ramanauskas is a research fellow at Oxford University, associate fellow at Bright Blue, and former adviser at the Department of International Trade.
The reason that UK supermarkets have shortages of vegetables – and despite what the biased BBC might tell you – is simple: Brexit.
That’s the claim that has been doing the rounds on social media, with Twitter users – often with #FBPE in their bios – gleefully sharing photos and videos of well-stocked supermarket shelves in the EU, accompanied by some smug comment about Brexit and how we’re all being gaslit by the BBC.
It would certainly make sense to think that Brexit is responsible but, and I say this as someone who ultimately wants the UK to rejoin the Single Market, while Brexit has certainly not helped matters, it is lazy and overly simplistic to blame it for the current shortages.
First, for countries that normally export a lot of tomatoes but are now facing shortages, it makes sense that they will prioritise their domestic market and their neighbours. If their profits are going to take a hit due to their failure to meet their usual quotas they will seek to cut costs elsewhere, including on transport. This is obviously the case with a country such as Morocco which is experiencing transport difficulties.
It’s a point you normally have to point out to ardent Brexiteers, but distance really does matter when it comes to trade and countries tend to do far more trade with countries that are close to them than countries that are further away. Brexit probably is an aggravating factor here as once inside the Single Market it will be cheaper to trade with other countries in the Single Market. However, it is far from the only reason.
Second, many countries in the EU produce far higher quantities of vegetables such as tomatoes than the UK, often substantially more. They either have a more suitable climate or have found more efficient and cost-effective ways to produce vegetables in winter. As such, it is not surprising that these countries are not experiencing the same shortages as the UK.
Third, Ireland is also experiencing shortages of vegetables. It is thus not true to claim that this is a UK-only problem and that there are no shortages in the EU. The reason for shortages in Ireland are likely the same as for the UK: they source most of their vegetables from the same countries during winter and are also far away from major exporters.
Fourth, people seem to be suffering from a form of collective amnesia. A very similar issue occurred this time six years ago. Back in January and February 2017 UK supermarkets faced shortages of iceberg lettuce, aubergines, broccoli, peppers, tomatoes, celery, courgettes, and cucumbers. The reason? Bad weather in Mediterranean countries. While this was after the Brexit vote, it was years before the UK actually left the EU.
Fifth, supermarket supply chains are incredibly complex, as are the decisions behind them. Supermarkets often operate on incredibly thin margins and so things such as cost and existing relationships really do matter. It’s a complex situation and so we should avoid overly simplistic explanations.
However, it’s not just the #FBPE crowd who have jumped on the vegetable situation to lend support for their cause. Arch Brexiteers are equally guilty. Take Sir John Redwood, for example. He has repeatedly called for the UK to become self-sufficient in food and recently used the current crisis to demand more subsidies for UK farmers so that they could grow all our vegetables. Redwood and his ilk would do well to remember the teachings of Adam Smith.
By means of glasses, hotbeds, and hot walls, very good grapes can be raised in Scotland. Very good wine can also be made of them – but at about 30 times the expense for which at least equally good can be brought from foreign countries. Would it be a reasonable law to prohibit the importation of all foreign wines, merely to encourage the making of Claret and Burgundy in Scotland?
The UK could, of course, eschew food and drink imports from the EU and simply subsidise UK farmers to produce all our food. But this would obviously be bonkers. Free trade makes us all wealthier, whereas the subsidies required to become self-sufficient in food would be economically crippling and the amount of energy required would be deeply damaging to the environment.
We will no doubt continue to see shortages of vegetables in the future as climate change continues to change weather patterns. As such, we should take food security seriously. However, the correct response is more trade, not less. The Government should work to diversify supply chains to increase resilience by making it easier and less expensive for UK supermarkets to import produce from all over the world by striking new trade deals, slashing tariffs on agricultural goods, and removing other barriers to trade. Part of this will involve improving and building upon the TCA with the EU but will also mean forging new trade relationships with major exporters such as India.
Complex situations require sophisticated analysis. Those on both sides of the Brexit divide should avoid overly simplistic explanations and work at providing sensible solutions to the problems the country is facing rather than using them as opportunities to pursue their own agenda and confirm their prior beliefs.
Ben Ramanauskas is a research fellow at Oxford University, associate fellow at Bright Blue, and former adviser at the Department of International Trade.
The reason that UK supermarkets have shortages of vegetables – and despite what the biased BBC might tell you – is simple: Brexit.
That’s the claim that has been doing the rounds on social media, with Twitter users – often with #FBPE in their bios – gleefully sharing photos and videos of well-stocked supermarket shelves in the EU, accompanied by some smug comment about Brexit and how we’re all being gaslit by the BBC.
It would certainly make sense to think that Brexit is responsible but, and I say this as someone who ultimately wants the UK to rejoin the Single Market, while Brexit has certainly not helped matters, it is lazy and overly simplistic to blame it for the current shortages.
First, for countries that normally export a lot of tomatoes but are now facing shortages, it makes sense that they will prioritise their domestic market and their neighbours. If their profits are going to take a hit due to their failure to meet their usual quotas they will seek to cut costs elsewhere, including on transport. This is obviously the case with a country such as Morocco which is experiencing transport difficulties.
It’s a point you normally have to point out to ardent Brexiteers, but distance really does matter when it comes to trade and countries tend to do far more trade with countries that are close to them than countries that are further away. Brexit probably is an aggravating factor here as once inside the Single Market it will be cheaper to trade with other countries in the Single Market. However, it is far from the only reason.
Second, many countries in the EU produce far higher quantities of vegetables such as tomatoes than the UK, often substantially more. They either have a more suitable climate or have found more efficient and cost-effective ways to produce vegetables in winter. As such, it is not surprising that these countries are not experiencing the same shortages as the UK.
Third, Ireland is also experiencing shortages of vegetables. It is thus not true to claim that this is a UK-only problem and that there are no shortages in the EU. The reason for shortages in Ireland are likely the same as for the UK: they source most of their vegetables from the same countries during winter and are also far away from major exporters.
Fourth, people seem to be suffering from a form of collective amnesia. A very similar issue occurred this time six years ago. Back in January and February 2017 UK supermarkets faced shortages of iceberg lettuce, aubergines, broccoli, peppers, tomatoes, celery, courgettes, and cucumbers. The reason? Bad weather in Mediterranean countries. While this was after the Brexit vote, it was years before the UK actually left the EU.
Fifth, supermarket supply chains are incredibly complex, as are the decisions behind them. Supermarkets often operate on incredibly thin margins and so things such as cost and existing relationships really do matter. It’s a complex situation and so we should avoid overly simplistic explanations.
However, it’s not just the #FBPE crowd who have jumped on the vegetable situation to lend support for their cause. Arch Brexiteers are equally guilty. Take Sir John Redwood, for example. He has repeatedly called for the UK to become self-sufficient in food and recently used the current crisis to demand more subsidies for UK farmers so that they could grow all our vegetables. Redwood and his ilk would do well to remember the teachings of Adam Smith.
By means of glasses, hotbeds, and hot walls, very good grapes can be raised in Scotland. Very good wine can also be made of them – but at about 30 times the expense for which at least equally good can be brought from foreign countries. Would it be a reasonable law to prohibit the importation of all foreign wines, merely to encourage the making of Claret and Burgundy in Scotland?
The UK could, of course, eschew food and drink imports from the EU and simply subsidise UK farmers to produce all our food. But this would obviously be bonkers. Free trade makes us all wealthier, whereas the subsidies required to become self-sufficient in food would be economically crippling and the amount of energy required would be deeply damaging to the environment.
We will no doubt continue to see shortages of vegetables in the future as climate change continues to change weather patterns. As such, we should take food security seriously. However, the correct response is more trade, not less. The Government should work to diversify supply chains to increase resilience by making it easier and less expensive for UK supermarkets to import produce from all over the world by striking new trade deals, slashing tariffs on agricultural goods, and removing other barriers to trade. Part of this will involve improving and building upon the TCA with the EU but will also mean forging new trade relationships with major exporters such as India.
Complex situations require sophisticated analysis. Those on both sides of the Brexit divide should avoid overly simplistic explanations and work at providing sensible solutions to the problems the country is facing rather than using them as opportunities to pursue their own agenda and confirm their prior beliefs.