Olivier Guitta is the Managing Director of GlobalStrat, a security and geopolitical risk consulting company for companies and governments.
Two years ago, the security of Taiwan was a purely Chinese issue. But the invasion by Russia of Ukraine and China’s more aggressive posturing has changed that picture.
For proof, nearly half of American adults (47 per cent) are now saying that tensions between mainland China and Taiwan are a very serious problem, up 19 percentage points since February 2021. China can’t afford a risky and possibly disastrous military campaign or a blockade of Taiwan that will be considered a declaration of war. Therefore, a soft takeover by covert means like influencing the January 2024 presidential elections could be Beijing’s strategy.
On almost a weekly basis, we are bombarded with reports, statements on when China will invade Taiwan; for many in the U.S. the key date is 2027. While it makes sense for the US military and politicians alike to convey the message that the threat is very real and that America would respond to such an attack, Beijing doesn’t have to resort to violence to take over Taiwan.
Taiwan’s President Tsai said that while the threat of military invasion can’t be ignored, China’s real plan is to force Taiwan to submit through nonmilitary means: “I think China has this belief that the best way to win the war is without war.” China’s leader Xi Jinping has indeed urged the Communist Party to “win the hearts and minds” of people in Taiwan as part of a “national rejuvenation” as the island gears up for a presidential election in January 2024.
Since President Tsai Ing-wen is not allowed to run, her party nominated her Vice President Lai, choosing a contender who is even more outspoken on Taiwan’s independence than her. To deter China from attacking Taiwan, Lai has warned that China will suffer the consequences of a risky military campaign: “China should clearly realise that once war is launched on Taiwan, Taiwan will admittedly be directly harmed but it will also cause a global catastrophe China will find it hard to bear.”
China could be running disinformation campaigns, social media influence operations and even possibly try to rig elections. The main opposition party, the Kuomintang, traditionally favours close relations with China, which has left it open to the ruling party attacks that it will sell out the island to the Chinese Communist Party. In fact, to avoid war with China, it isn’t far-fetched to envisage that the Kuomintang will seek a reunification of sorts with Beijing in the short to medium term.
China could also use a more subtle approach that will still allow it to be in the driver’s seat if the Kuomintang were to win the elections in eight months. This would also make it easier for China to deny any interference in Taiwan and make it more difficult for the U.S. and its allies to intervene at all.
While Taiwan by far the most important foreign policy and possibly domestic policy issue for the Chinese Communist Party, it is also a crucial issue for the U.S. and the West since 90 per cent of the high-end chips in the world are manufactured there. Indeed, most appliances, cars, computers, weapons, in the world are running on TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company)’s chips.
Furthermore, TSMC is the only company in the world capable of making the chips required for the most advanced communication and military hardware. The view of many insiders is that if China rolls into Taiwan and that capability disappears, the U.S. could potentially tremendously suffer economically and militarily.
Hence why it is a high priority for the U.S. and the West to make sure that China won’t control this technology that would allow Beijing to blackmail them. It is a national security issue for the U.S. that could go to great lengths to prevent China from seizing TSMC, including an alleged contingency plan concocted by the Pentagon to actually bomb TSMC factories on the island.
The likelihood of a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan is very slim but that doesn’t mean Beijing won’t try to take over the island by other means avoiding an American intervention at the same time. The corporate world has taken note: for proof, 33 per cent of the companies recently surveyed by the American Chamber of Commerce in Taiwan said their operations had been ‘significantly disrupted’ by the increase in tensions with China, compared with 17 per cent in August. Multinationals are also inserting clauses related to China-Taiwan tensions into commercial contracts. Everyone is getting ready for the next episode.
Olivier Guitta is the Managing Director of GlobalStrat, a security and geopolitical risk consulting company for companies and governments.
Two years ago, the security of Taiwan was a purely Chinese issue. But the invasion by Russia of Ukraine and China’s more aggressive posturing has changed that picture.
For proof, nearly half of American adults (47 per cent) are now saying that tensions between mainland China and Taiwan are a very serious problem, up 19 percentage points since February 2021. China can’t afford a risky and possibly disastrous military campaign or a blockade of Taiwan that will be considered a declaration of war. Therefore, a soft takeover by covert means like influencing the January 2024 presidential elections could be Beijing’s strategy.
On almost a weekly basis, we are bombarded with reports, statements on when China will invade Taiwan; for many in the U.S. the key date is 2027. While it makes sense for the US military and politicians alike to convey the message that the threat is very real and that America would respond to such an attack, Beijing doesn’t have to resort to violence to take over Taiwan.
Taiwan’s President Tsai said that while the threat of military invasion can’t be ignored, China’s real plan is to force Taiwan to submit through nonmilitary means: “I think China has this belief that the best way to win the war is without war.” China’s leader Xi Jinping has indeed urged the Communist Party to “win the hearts and minds” of people in Taiwan as part of a “national rejuvenation” as the island gears up for a presidential election in January 2024.
Since President Tsai Ing-wen is not allowed to run, her party nominated her Vice President Lai, choosing a contender who is even more outspoken on Taiwan’s independence than her. To deter China from attacking Taiwan, Lai has warned that China will suffer the consequences of a risky military campaign: “China should clearly realise that once war is launched on Taiwan, Taiwan will admittedly be directly harmed but it will also cause a global catastrophe China will find it hard to bear.”
China could be running disinformation campaigns, social media influence operations and even possibly try to rig elections. The main opposition party, the Kuomintang, traditionally favours close relations with China, which has left it open to the ruling party attacks that it will sell out the island to the Chinese Communist Party. In fact, to avoid war with China, it isn’t far-fetched to envisage that the Kuomintang will seek a reunification of sorts with Beijing in the short to medium term.
China could also use a more subtle approach that will still allow it to be in the driver’s seat if the Kuomintang were to win the elections in eight months. This would also make it easier for China to deny any interference in Taiwan and make it more difficult for the U.S. and its allies to intervene at all.
While Taiwan by far the most important foreign policy and possibly domestic policy issue for the Chinese Communist Party, it is also a crucial issue for the U.S. and the West since 90 per cent of the high-end chips in the world are manufactured there. Indeed, most appliances, cars, computers, weapons, in the world are running on TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company)’s chips.
Furthermore, TSMC is the only company in the world capable of making the chips required for the most advanced communication and military hardware. The view of many insiders is that if China rolls into Taiwan and that capability disappears, the U.S. could potentially tremendously suffer economically and militarily.
Hence why it is a high priority for the U.S. and the West to make sure that China won’t control this technology that would allow Beijing to blackmail them. It is a national security issue for the U.S. that could go to great lengths to prevent China from seizing TSMC, including an alleged contingency plan concocted by the Pentagon to actually bomb TSMC factories on the island.
The likelihood of a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan is very slim but that doesn’t mean Beijing won’t try to take over the island by other means avoiding an American intervention at the same time. The corporate world has taken note: for proof, 33 per cent of the companies recently surveyed by the American Chamber of Commerce in Taiwan said their operations had been ‘significantly disrupted’ by the increase in tensions with China, compared with 17 per cent in August. Multinationals are also inserting clauses related to China-Taiwan tensions into commercial contracts. Everyone is getting ready for the next episode.