James Johnson is co-founder of the pollster JL Partners, and formerly ran polling for Downing Street.
Two years ago, Sadiq Khan won London by accident. His margin may have looked decisive, but that victory said more about a lack of competition than the man himself.
In focus groups I ran throughout that election, swing voters were damning of the Mayor’s record. They spoke about him only being in power for the sake of it and having achieved nothing of note while crime and housing costs soared.
Yet he still won. Shaun Bailey was seen as uninspiring and – though he performed well with Leave voters in outer London – he was ultimately viewed as just another Conservative. Rory Stewart’s brief run as an independent may have threatened Khan but he ended his campaign early. The Green and Liberal Democrat candidates failed to make an impression.
Sadiq Khan looks set to repeat the trick next year. With Khan’s ratings worsening since (fully 50 per cent now feel he is doing badly) it would be an even emptier victory than before.
But there may yet be a chance for the Conservatives. The only major poll of the race conducted so far puts Khan only 10 points ahead of the Conservatives. If a spoiler candidate on the left runs, like Jeremy Corbyn, that narrows to just four points. The election is now fought on a ‘first past the post’ system, meaning Khan cannot rely on Liberal Democrat and Green transfer votes which have strengthened him in the last two contests.
Voters think of the contest more through a presidential than a party lens. In those focus groups last time around, voters talked about ‘Sadiq’, ‘Rory’ and ‘Shaun’ rather than party labels. Disassociate Sadiq from Labour, and the Tory candidate from the Conservative brand, and a victory is not beyond the realms of possibility.
Study the remaining potential Tory candidates and it is clear only one can do this. The Tories’ best bet is the outside choice: Mozammel Hossain.
His story is that of the ultimate outsider. Born into poverty in Bangladesh, he did not own shoes until he was 16 years old. He went on to be the first Bangladeshi-born criminal barrister in London and now – with barely a hint of a public profile – he is running to be Mayor of London. That’s about as unstuffy and stereotypically ‘Tory’ a background as one can imagine – and a direct threat to Khan’s claim to represent London’s story.
When I first watched footage of him at hustings and on the media, Hossain’s manner of public speaking took me off guard. Was he just a little too odd? But then I realised I was quite entranced. His is a radically different style, but also refreshingly different from the canned, scripted responses we have become used to and that voters despise. Too odd? London wants odd.
Recent J.L. Partners polling in London supports this. We showed voters the background stories of the then-three candidates (Daniel Korski has since withdrawn) without naming them. The background of Hossain appealed most to twice the number of voters than Susan Hall’s or Korski’s did, being the top choice of 41 per cent of Londoners compared to 21 per cent and 18 per cent for the other candidates.
Critically, in a contest in which the Tory candidate must win Labour voters, his story appeals most to 56 per cent of those who voted for Sadiq Khan in 2021.
We also asked Londoners which characteristics they most want to see in their Mayor.
A top priority – the choice of three in ten – is an ‘expert on tackling crime’: it is hard to argue that a criminal barrister does not meet that standard. With crime the top issue facing London (the choice of 50 per cent of Londoners, above even the cost of living) it is an area on which the Conservatives will need to sound convincing. Hossain also voted Remain, still an important consideration for one in five Londoners.
Polling on candidates when they are not well-known is always a challenge. To circumvent this, we showed voters Hossain’s launch video. A majority – 52 per cent – said they felt positively about the video, including 42 per cent of Labour voters. More than one in four voters who supported Khan in 2021 but would not be very likely to do so again said that the video made them think that Hossain could ‘rival Sadiq Khan’. In what is a Labour city, these are exceptional figures for a Tory candidate.
Many Conservative policies are popular with the London electorate. Scrapping the ULEZ expansion to outer London is backed by a margin of two to one and would clearly be a popular proposition from any candidate.
In a presidential contest, who that is matters. Susan Hall would be a fine candidate but she would be a dull one. She has said so herself, calling her campaign “Safer with Susan” and talking about the need for a “boring” person in City Hall.
But the Conservatives cannot afford boring. Voters want radicalism, excitement, and a clear alternative to what they see as a failed Mayor. High up their list of priorities for their next mayor is someone who is ‘not a career politician’. London Tories cannot afford a candidate who is seen as a classic Conservative in a climate where the Tories are twenty points behind in the national polls.
Safer with Susan? A ‘safety first’ approach will lose the Tories the election by default. It did not work in 2021, nor will it in 2024. Nominating Hossain would be a gamble. But if London Conservatives want to win next year, the data shows that their best bet is to vote for Mozammel Hossain.