Amidst attempted backbench putsches, a looming Budget, and the start of England’s tour of India, Rishi Sunak has a lot on his plate. Showing his workaholic side, he has decided to add to his in-tray by jumping into an open-ended war with the Houthis.
He told the Commons yesterday that the UK would “not hesitate” to take more action against the Yemeni militants after British warships participated in the latest round of air strikes against the Houthis. The Prime Minister refused to rule out a “prolonged and persistent” campaign to protect civilian shipping. “We cannot stand by and allow these attacks to go unchallenged”, he solemnly intoned.
Sunak is obviously right. There have been a further 12 Houthi attacks on ships since the previous US-UK air strikes. These cannot be allowed to stand. Not only is the principle of the freedom of the seas at stake, but the Iranian-backed militia have expanded their attacks to British-linked vessels. This is an act of self-defence. Also, they’re monsters.
But as easy as it might be to justify the airstrikes on paper, it becomes a slightly trickier the more one thinks about where all this is going. Downing Street and the White House would have hoped one strike would have been enough to send the Houthis an unambiguous message. That clearly hasn’t worked.
Can we hope that this second round of strikes will teach them to stop attacking? Sunak hardly sounds optimistic. Maybe a third would do it? Or could it be that the Saudis were onto something when they sought a ceasefire with the Houthis after eight years of inconclusive yet bloody warfare? Their drone attacks cost a few thousand dollars. Our bombing raids will cost several million.
Are we looking forwards to an endless game of Anglo-American whack-a-mole against the militants? They attack a ship, we strike them. Iran rearms them. They attack another ship. We strike them. Rinse, repeat. All parties do all they can to remain on the right side of escalation – until the Houthis manage to sink a super-tanker. Meanwhile, all the Red Sea trade is increasingly and expensively diverted around Africa.
These strikes are already becoming normalised. Before the first round, Sunak consulted the Cabinet, and spoke to Keir Starmer and Lindsay Hoyle. He did not bother to this time. He has twice kindly graced the Commons with his presence. After the next strikes, will he just send Grant Shapps?
With Israel’s operation in Gaza continuing for as long as it takes to free the hostages – or for Benjamin Netanyhau to be forced from power – the Houthis will keep their nominal excuse to continue attacking. Iran’s spectre will continue to loom over the region. And Britain and the United States will continue to pummel away. It’s the geopolitical equivalent of a fidget spinner. The beatings will continue until morale improving.
Islamic death cults tend to have longer life spans than British Prime Ministers. Fortunately, Starmer has promised to keep on whacking, in the assumption that the Houthis will eventually learn their lesson. As Joe Biden said of the strikes last week, “Are they stopping the Houthis? No. Are they going to continue? Yes.” So it goes.