For some months now, archivists at Victoria Tower in the Palace of Westminster have been toiling. Many of their documents are being moved across to Kew. Judging by the stream of pallets by the doorway that’s been a major task.
Although a sad loss for those with local access, the idea is a sensible one, given the lack of study space for visiting researchers as well as the building’s track record: those precious archives that were previously held on site went up in flames in the blaze of 1834. Curators have maintained a ‘grab bag’ of the most important items, which they can snatch and save in case of sudden catastrophe.
After a fashion, this takes us to modern-day politics.
A year ago, I penned a piece for ConservativeHome looking at the electoral prospects of the Conservatives. It came at the matter from the viewpoint of the risk analyst, and applied the cone of probability – the prospect of something happening shown by whether or not it sat within the cone, and by how much. The cone shrinks with time, meaning that improbable prospects nearer the edge shift towards the impossible.
At the time it was clear that the odds did not wildly favour a Tory general election victory. Nevertheless, exterior forces – foreign wars, Blob madness, Labour incompetence – would have a part to play, and still do. More importantly, conscious political choices do. A bold set of policies, I argued, which made tough and long-ducked calls would be respected by the voter, while delivering what was needed for the country.
That meant legal immigration in the tens of thousands, rather than running at more than half a million. A functional system to deter illegal arrivals. An end to the default of rewarding civil service failure. Criminals getting caught and doing time. Removing the NHS from. its impossible pedestal. Rewarding YIMBYs, and building more homes. Dropping the cult of environmentalism in favour of traditional countryside values. Sapping political correctness. Gripping HR, and the red tape twins of Health and Safety. Pursuing lower and flatter taxes. Chasing deregulation as the default setting.
A golden thread is accepting that many of these issues are interlinked and must be fixed in parallel. Central to that circuitry was accepting the ECHR has morphed and we need to completely reshape our legal relationship with human rights and social obligations.
These are not revolutionary ideals. They may, indeed, be politically difficult ones. But that is a different matter.
Unfortunately, opportunities have only partially and hesitantly been taken, with ministers too often hampered by collegial inertia or systemic opposition. For instance, the Whitehall OODA Loop around fighting political correctness seems to be driven by whatever Steven Edginton of the Telegraph finds out.
It is a recipe for disaster to default to the strategy of the Cabinet Office, of stating deep concern about an issue (such as the shortage of housing) while suggesting that it might feature as an action item in a distant manifesto.
Hence the current state of polls suggesting a Labour majority so big, all the bench space across both sides of the Commons wouldn’t have room to sit every returned Labour MP. John Hayes once wrote a pamphlet called Who Represents Rural Britain? Looking at the seats back then, the answer was “Not you, Tony Blair”. Yet now we find a Country Land and Business Association poll that sees Conservate representation drained even from its countryside heartlands.
Punters can look up other bleak betting odds for themselves. But there is another curious poll out there out there, different from the others. That is the YouGov poll associated with David Frost, featured prominently in the Telegraph. The striking thing here was not the poll results, nor the ongoing mystery of who generated it. It was the fact that respondees in huge numbers wanted the Government to deliver on precisely the sort of things we listed earlier, and would reward whoever did it at the polls. Of course, it’s in the Left’s interest to dismiss that, since those failures are the inevitable consequences of slopey-shoulder socialism. But that’s no reason for Conservatives to do so too.
Inaction on delivery leaves us sliding almost out of the cone of probabilities. It sees us now confronted with two possible options – to embrace the remaining opportunities, or to embrace disaster.
Disaster is easier to deliver but for obvious reasons tends to get badly prepped for. This is dangerous. Effective opposition is a rare skill set. It needs media streetfighters, issue probers, and green bench guerillistas. Without a new generation of Eric Forths and David Macleans, and fresh backup for Christopher Chopes and Jacob Rees-Moggs on the green benches, a return to power will be a long time coming.
A massive Labour majority would armour-plate Keir Starmer against failure and scandal by sheer parliamentary numbers. I see few signs that the Conservatives are selecting candidates who would excel at this counter-revolutionary role.
Far better though to deliver, to apply an existing parliamentary majority, and to get the things done that need doing. Too much time has slipped away to deliver on many projects, but some can still be embraced and others run their first lap. With delicious timing, Sheffield Forgemasters have just revealed a cutting-edge technique that reduces the time it takes to make core components of modular nuclear reactors from five months to a few hours. That ought to inspire ministers to do likewise with planning permissions.
So forget the polls, or the question of polling day; just govern as Conservatives. To use a maligned West Wing analogy: let Bartlet be Bartlet. There still remains enough time to leave a genuine and defining legacy, that frames where the next government is heading, and reaffirms that Conservatism truly does seek to make people’s life better.
Everyone knows an emergency policy for the conflagration. They are hardly grand secrets. But will Rishi Sunak actually be willing to seize the opportunity?
For some months now, archivists at Victoria Tower in the Palace of Westminster have been toiling. Many of their documents are being moved across to Kew. Judging by the stream of pallets by the doorway that’s been a major task.
Although a sad loss for those with local access, the idea is a sensible one, given the lack of study space for visiting researchers as well as the building’s track record: those precious archives that were previously held on site went up in flames in the blaze of 1834. Curators have maintained a ‘grab bag’ of the most important items, which they can snatch and save in case of sudden catastrophe.
After a fashion, this takes us to modern-day politics.
A year ago, I penned a piece for ConservativeHome looking at the electoral prospects of the Conservatives. It came at the matter from the viewpoint of the risk analyst, and applied the cone of probability – the prospect of something happening shown by whether or not it sat within the cone, and by how much. The cone shrinks with time, meaning that improbable prospects nearer the edge shift towards the impossible.
At the time it was clear that the odds did not wildly favour a Tory general election victory. Nevertheless, exterior forces – foreign wars, Blob madness, Labour incompetence – would have a part to play, and still do. More importantly, conscious political choices do. A bold set of policies, I argued, which made tough and long-ducked calls would be respected by the voter, while delivering what was needed for the country.
That meant legal immigration in the tens of thousands, rather than running at more than half a million. A functional system to deter illegal arrivals. An end to the default of rewarding civil service failure. Criminals getting caught and doing time. Removing the NHS from. its impossible pedestal. Rewarding YIMBYs, and building more homes. Dropping the cult of environmentalism in favour of traditional countryside values. Sapping political correctness. Gripping HR, and the red tape twins of Health and Safety. Pursuing lower and flatter taxes. Chasing deregulation as the default setting.
A golden thread is accepting that many of these issues are interlinked and must be fixed in parallel. Central to that circuitry was accepting the ECHR has morphed and we need to completely reshape our legal relationship with human rights and social obligations.
These are not revolutionary ideals. They may, indeed, be politically difficult ones. But that is a different matter.
Unfortunately, opportunities have only partially and hesitantly been taken, with ministers too often hampered by collegial inertia or systemic opposition. For instance, the Whitehall OODA Loop around fighting political correctness seems to be driven by whatever Steven Edginton of the Telegraph finds out.
It is a recipe for disaster to default to the strategy of the Cabinet Office, of stating deep concern about an issue (such as the shortage of housing) while suggesting that it might feature as an action item in a distant manifesto.
Hence the current state of polls suggesting a Labour majority so big, all the bench space across both sides of the Commons wouldn’t have room to sit every returned Labour MP. John Hayes once wrote a pamphlet called Who Represents Rural Britain? Looking at the seats back then, the answer was “Not you, Tony Blair”. Yet now we find a Country Land and Business Association poll that sees Conservate representation drained even from its countryside heartlands.
Punters can look up other bleak betting odds for themselves. But there is another curious poll out there out there, different from the others. That is the YouGov poll associated with David Frost, featured prominently in the Telegraph. The striking thing here was not the poll results, nor the ongoing mystery of who generated it. It was the fact that respondees in huge numbers wanted the Government to deliver on precisely the sort of things we listed earlier, and would reward whoever did it at the polls. Of course, it’s in the Left’s interest to dismiss that, since those failures are the inevitable consequences of slopey-shoulder socialism. But that’s no reason for Conservatives to do so too.
Inaction on delivery leaves us sliding almost out of the cone of probabilities. It sees us now confronted with two possible options – to embrace the remaining opportunities, or to embrace disaster.
Disaster is easier to deliver but for obvious reasons tends to get badly prepped for. This is dangerous. Effective opposition is a rare skill set. It needs media streetfighters, issue probers, and green bench guerillistas. Without a new generation of Eric Forths and David Macleans, and fresh backup for Christopher Chopes and Jacob Rees-Moggs on the green benches, a return to power will be a long time coming.
A massive Labour majority would armour-plate Keir Starmer against failure and scandal by sheer parliamentary numbers. I see few signs that the Conservatives are selecting candidates who would excel at this counter-revolutionary role.
Far better though to deliver, to apply an existing parliamentary majority, and to get the things done that need doing. Too much time has slipped away to deliver on many projects, but some can still be embraced and others run their first lap. With delicious timing, Sheffield Forgemasters have just revealed a cutting-edge technique that reduces the time it takes to make core components of modular nuclear reactors from five months to a few hours. That ought to inspire ministers to do likewise with planning permissions.
So forget the polls, or the question of polling day; just govern as Conservatives. To use a maligned West Wing analogy: let Bartlet be Bartlet. There still remains enough time to leave a genuine and defining legacy, that frames where the next government is heading, and reaffirms that Conservatism truly does seek to make people’s life better.
Everyone knows an emergency policy for the conflagration. They are hardly grand secrets. But will Rishi Sunak actually be willing to seize the opportunity?