So, today is the day. According to YouGov, Reform UK has narrowly overtaken the Conservatives in headline voting intention, with Nigel Farage’s party on 19 points to the Tories’ 18.
There are reasons to be cautious about the finding, although they will be cold comfort to CCHQ. A poll putting Reform one point ahead might not be statistically more significant that the previous one putting them one point behind, but being within the margin of error is still a terrible place for the Party to be.
One also wonders if Farage might eventually come to think this came a bit too early, as Alex Salmond did when a poll put ‘Yes’ ahead twelve days before the Scottish referendum in 2014. There are still three weeks of campaigning to go, which is a long time in the spotlight for a party not used to it.
But what do party members think the Prime Minister should do about the challenge posed by Reform UK? Well, a majority (56 to 38 per cent) would back some sort of deal, if one were on the table. 
However, in the absence of such an arrangement, they do not think that the Conservative campaign should concentrate on Reform UK switchers; although the split is fairly even, a plurality (46 to 42 per cent) think that CCHQ should focus on voters at risk of switching to Labour or the Liberal Democrats:
This makes sense, in terms of which parties are more likely to take a lot of Tory seats on July 4. It also tallies with what I’m hearing from canvassers, and the case set out on this site yesterday by John Oxley, that the most fertile territory for the Conservatives at this point is ‘Don’t Knows’ who might be persuaded to stick with their local candidate.
But it might come as a bit of a surprise to those, such as Andrea Jenkyns, who want to use the Reform challenge as an excuse to retreat into the comfortable territory of being as right-wing as possible, rather than focusing on the actual best interests of the Party (which doesn’t even appear on her leaflets).
Those MPs will take more comfort, however, from our last question. Should Farage be returned in Clacton, a majority of respondents (55 to 37 per cent) would support offering him the Conservative whip:
This is obviously basically the same proportion who favour a pact. It might not matter so much now, but with Farage likely to cast a long shadow over any future Tory leadership contest, this finding will be a boost for those, such as Suella Braverman, who say they would welcome him into the party. (Although they should be careful what they wish for.)