Dr David Jeffery is a senior lecturer in British politics at the University of Liverpool and author of Whatever Happened to Tory Liverpool.
The Conservative Party leadership election is trundling on. At the time of writing (midday Wednesday) over half of MPs having publicly declared their support for a candidate, so it seems like a good time to explore the patterns of who is backing whom so far.
Using data from sources like Guido and the Express, I have built a basic website to track this. In this article, I want to outline some of the key points and divisions between the candidates.
Firstly, how are the contenders doing? So far, Jenrick and Badenoch lead in terms of supporters, with the backing of 18 and 15 MPs respectively (including themselves). Stride and Tugendhat are at eight apiece, and Cleverly and Patel are tied at the back of the pack with seven and six supporters each. This leaves 59 MPs yet to declare.
Let’s look at whom these MPs backed in the first leadership contest in 2022. The broad assumption here is that Truss supporters will back the ‘right-wing’ candidates (Jenrick, Badenoch, and Patel), while Sunak supporters will back the more centrist candidates (Stride, Tugendhat, and Cleverly).
Generally, this is the case: Truss supporters (30 per cent of the PCP) make up the bulk of Patel’s support (83 per cent) and are overrepresented among Badenoch and Jenrick’s support bases.
Sunak’s supporters (36 per cent of the PCP) are overrepresented in Stride’s supporters (63 per cent of whom backed the former prime minister) and make up a roughly proportionate share of Badenoch’s support; not a single Sunak backer has yet to support Patel (she has only won support from those who backed Truss and Braverman in the previous leadership contest), and his supporters are underrepresented within Tugendhat and Cleverly’s caucuses.
Despite the fact that two of the ‘right-wing’ candidates are leading in public declarations, MPs who have not declared were more likely to have supported Sunak previously – which is good news for Tugendhat, Cleverly, and Stride.
The second leadership contest is slightly less useful for these purposes, given the relative lack of information about public declarations of support. However, we see Sunak’s supporters have split across all the candidates except for Patel, reflecting the sense that MPs put aside ideology in that contest because they thought (mistakenly, as we saw recently) that Sunak could restore the party’s fortunes.
Those who publicly supported Johnson, meanwhile, tended to go to Jenrick and Patel (33 per cent of their support bases respectively). No Johnson backer has supported Tugendhat, Stride, and – perhaps surprisingly – Badenoch. The backing of Johnson could be what distinguishes the two leading right-wing candidates.
I’ve also collated some information about which parliamentary groupings MPs have been associated with, to see which groups are supporting which candidates.
European Research Group MPs are overrepresented within Jenrick and Badenoch’s support bases, and not a single ERG MP has backed Tugendhat. MPs associated with the China Research Group are more likely to back Jenrick too.
MPs affiliated with the Conservative Environment Network are overrepresented among Badenoch, Jenrick, and Tugendhat’s supporters – as indeed are members of the Tory Reform Group. The fact that this one-nation outfit can split between the leading centrist candidate and the two leading candidates of the right is surprising, and shows that the link between ideology, group affiliation, and candidate support is not as all-encompassing as one might assume.
We see a similar pattern for MPs affiliated with the liberal Bright Blue, who are split across every candidate but are most heavily concentrated in the support bases of Badenoch (47 per cent) and Stride (38 per cent), followed by Jenrick (33 per cent) and then Cleverly (29 per cent).
MPs who rebelled to keep the 0.7 per cent aid budget have only backed Tugendhat and Cleverly. Conversely, MPs who support the Common Sense Group – cultural conservatives – are massively overrepresented in Jenrick’s base (22 per cent, vs seven per cent of the PCP as a whole), and are proportionate in Badenoch’s base.
MPs who are pro-levelling up (reflected by their membership of the Northern Research Group, Blue Collar Conservatism, and Onward’s levelling-up taskforce) are more likely to back Jenrick, while none of these MPs back Cleverly. On the other hand, pro-free market MPs (represented by affiliation with the IEA’s Free Market Forum) are more likely to back Patel and Badenoch than Jenrick, representing another divide on the right.
Finally, we can look at data from the MPs Left-Right project, a Survation/Royal Holloway experiment that asked local councillors to place their MPs on a scale from 0 to 100, where 100 is very right-wing. (You can see the full data here.)
The parliamentary Tory party as a whole has an average placement of 76. Jenrick’s average supporter is to the right of the party, with a score of 78, ranging from 74 to 84. The average value for the other leading candidate of the right, Badenoch, is 76 – which means her support base is reflective of the party as a whole.
Stride and Tugendhat have support bases that are to the left of the party (75 and 74 respectively), whereas both Patel and Cleverly are to the right of the party (78 and 79 respectively).
Overall, then, we do see the contours of this leadership election playing out as expected. For the leading candidates of the right, Jenrick and Badenoch are fishing from largely the same pool, but with a few key distinctions. Jenrick seems better at winning over fans of Johnson and his levelling-up agenda, as well as cultural conservatives, whereas Badenoch seems more able to reach across to those on different wings of the party, including free-market conservatives.
There is less to say about the contest to be the leading candidate for the centre of the party. Stride is clearly the Sunak-approved candidate, yet Tugendhat has a better backstory and wins support from a more eclectic group of MPs: not just one nation, but also some free-marketeers and China hawks.
Ultimately, however, half of Conservative MPs are yet to declare publicly. It is all to play for.
Dr David Jeffery is a senior lecturer in British politics at the University of Liverpool and author of Whatever Happened to Tory Liverpool.
The Conservative Party leadership election is trundling on. At the time of writing (midday Wednesday) over half of MPs having publicly declared their support for a candidate, so it seems like a good time to explore the patterns of who is backing whom so far.
Using data from sources like Guido and the Express, I have built a basic website to track this. In this article, I want to outline some of the key points and divisions between the candidates.
Firstly, how are the contenders doing? So far, Jenrick and Badenoch lead in terms of supporters, with the backing of 18 and 15 MPs respectively (including themselves). Stride and Tugendhat are at eight apiece, and Cleverly and Patel are tied at the back of the pack with seven and six supporters each. This leaves 59 MPs yet to declare.
Let’s look at whom these MPs backed in the first leadership contest in 2022. The broad assumption here is that Truss supporters will back the ‘right-wing’ candidates (Jenrick, Badenoch, and Patel), while Sunak supporters will back the more centrist candidates (Stride, Tugendhat, and Cleverly).
Generally, this is the case: Truss supporters (30 per cent of the PCP) make up the bulk of Patel’s support (83 per cent) and are overrepresented among Badenoch and Jenrick’s support bases.
Sunak’s supporters (36 per cent of the PCP) are overrepresented in Stride’s supporters (63 per cent of whom backed the former prime minister) and make up a roughly proportionate share of Badenoch’s support; not a single Sunak backer has yet to support Patel (she has only won support from those who backed Truss and Braverman in the previous leadership contest), and his supporters are underrepresented within Tugendhat and Cleverly’s caucuses.
Despite the fact that two of the ‘right-wing’ candidates are leading in public declarations, MPs who have not declared were more likely to have supported Sunak previously – which is good news for Tugendhat, Cleverly, and Stride.
The second leadership contest is slightly less useful for these purposes, given the relative lack of information about public declarations of support. However, we see Sunak’s supporters have split across all the candidates except for Patel, reflecting the sense that MPs put aside ideology in that contest because they thought (mistakenly, as we saw recently) that Sunak could restore the party’s fortunes.
Those who publicly supported Johnson, meanwhile, tended to go to Jenrick and Patel (33 per cent of their support bases respectively). No Johnson backer has supported Tugendhat, Stride, and – perhaps surprisingly – Badenoch. The backing of Johnson could be what distinguishes the two leading right-wing candidates.
I’ve also collated some information about which parliamentary groupings MPs have been associated with, to see which groups are supporting which candidates.
European Research Group MPs are overrepresented within Jenrick and Badenoch’s support bases, and not a single ERG MP has backed Tugendhat. MPs associated with the China Research Group are more likely to back Jenrick too.
MPs affiliated with the Conservative Environment Network are overrepresented among Badenoch, Jenrick, and Tugendhat’s supporters – as indeed are members of the Tory Reform Group. The fact that this one-nation outfit can split between the leading centrist candidate and the two leading candidates of the right is surprising, and shows that the link between ideology, group affiliation, and candidate support is not as all-encompassing as one might assume.
We see a similar pattern for MPs affiliated with the liberal Bright Blue, who are split across every candidate but are most heavily concentrated in the support bases of Badenoch (47 per cent) and Stride (38 per cent), followed by Jenrick (33 per cent) and then Cleverly (29 per cent).
MPs who rebelled to keep the 0.7 per cent aid budget have only backed Tugendhat and Cleverly. Conversely, MPs who support the Common Sense Group – cultural conservatives – are massively overrepresented in Jenrick’s base (22 per cent, vs seven per cent of the PCP as a whole), and are proportionate in Badenoch’s base.
MPs who are pro-levelling up (reflected by their membership of the Northern Research Group, Blue Collar Conservatism, and Onward’s levelling-up taskforce) are more likely to back Jenrick, while none of these MPs back Cleverly. On the other hand, pro-free market MPs (represented by affiliation with the IEA’s Free Market Forum) are more likely to back Patel and Badenoch than Jenrick, representing another divide on the right.
Finally, we can look at data from the MPs Left-Right project, a Survation/Royal Holloway experiment that asked local councillors to place their MPs on a scale from 0 to 100, where 100 is very right-wing. (You can see the full data here.)
The parliamentary Tory party as a whole has an average placement of 76. Jenrick’s average supporter is to the right of the party, with a score of 78, ranging from 74 to 84. The average value for the other leading candidate of the right, Badenoch, is 76 – which means her support base is reflective of the party as a whole.
Stride and Tugendhat have support bases that are to the left of the party (75 and 74 respectively), whereas both Patel and Cleverly are to the right of the party (78 and 79 respectively).
Overall, then, we do see the contours of this leadership election playing out as expected. For the leading candidates of the right, Jenrick and Badenoch are fishing from largely the same pool, but with a few key distinctions. Jenrick seems better at winning over fans of Johnson and his levelling-up agenda, as well as cultural conservatives, whereas Badenoch seems more able to reach across to those on different wings of the party, including free-market conservatives.
There is less to say about the contest to be the leading candidate for the centre of the party. Stride is clearly the Sunak-approved candidate, yet Tugendhat has a better backstory and wins support from a more eclectic group of MPs: not just one nation, but also some free-marketeers and China hawks.
Ultimately, however, half of Conservative MPs are yet to declare publicly. It is all to play for.