Every month, we ask our ConservativeHome survey panel what they believe is the most likely outcome of the next general election. In November, flushed with confidence based on Labour’s abysmal performance, a limp and unpopular Budget, and the arrival of Kemi Badenoch as our new leader, 38 per cent of respondents predicted a Tory majority, and 14 per cent a Labour one.
As our Deputy Editor flagged at the time, this was quite a remarkable turnaround in under six months since our worst election defeat under universal suffrage. It was a near reversal from the figures in our post-election survey, when 41 per cent of our panel predicted another outright win for Labour, and only 17 per cent stuck their neck out for a Conservative revenement.
This month, there has been another eye-raising shift. On a comedown from last month’s burst of optimism, the share for a Conservative majority is down to 24 per cent, its lowest level since August. The Labour majority figure has stayed steady at 14 per cent. And the shares for a minority Conservative government, Conservative-led coalition, and Labour-led coalition are all up.
What to make of this? Whilst the Tories have led in some polls since Badenoch became leader, and have made steady advances in local government by-elections, that has been more the product of the rapid plummet in Labour’s popularity. The real story has been the swift advance of Reform – up to second place on 24 per cent in one poll this week, from 14 per cent at the election.
Plugging such figures into Electoral Calculas produces a parliament that one can best describe as ‘well hung’. A huge increase in Reform MPs slashes Labour’s majority, providing a potential coalition partner for Badenoch. 24 per cent now expect she is likely to form a coalition after the next election, the same figure as think she will win outright. One assumes this won’t be with Ed Davey.
If Badenoch does not want to find herself at Nigel Farage’s mercy after the next election, her task is obvious: to win back Reform voters, and quickly, or drown in the turquoise tidal wave. Keir Starmer has woken up to the threat Farage poses. Has Badenoch? The sooner she puts down the Thomas Sowell and starts denouncing the Boriswave and its author, the better.
Of course, just because our members believe a minority Tory government or a Tory-led coalition are becoming more likely, that doesn’t mean that they see such outcomes as necessarily bad ones. Many might think fondly of a Badenoch government having its spine stiffened by Farage, Richard Tice, and Rupert Lowe in the Cabinet, or holding her agenda hostage from the backbenches.
But the pace of politics is accelerating. On Friday, I suggested a poll would put Reform in second at some point in the next year or so. That poll dropped that very afternoon. As James Frayne has suggested, the real question is not why are Reform doing so well, but why are they not doing better? We failed miserably. Labour are also failing miserably. Why vote for either of us ever again?
Within a year, if Farage’s progress continues, we will not only need to ask about Conservative or Labour leading governments but Reform. Will Badenoch’s role in history be as the junior partner in Farage’s first government? Or, if the local elections this year and next are sufficiently turgid, will Tory MPs smash the glass marked ‘vote of no confidence’? The game commences, and so on.