Both supporters and opponents of Reform UK agree that May 1st next year will be an important date for that party. The county council elections are taking place then and the plucky insurgents are hoping to get a full slate of candidates wherever possible. Of course, we may well have a Parliamentary by-election in Runcorn and Helsby before then, following the arrest of Mike Amesbury – the case goes to court on January 16th. Reform UK came second there at the General Election – but such a distant second behind Labour that it would be a real upset if Labour didn’t manage to cling on. So the local elections will be the main focus.
With their growing membership and financial backing, Reform UK is developing a full structure of constituency branches and professional organisers. They are seeking not only to find candidates but to back them up with a thorough campaigning effort.
So far as the battle between Labour and the Conservatives is concerned, it may prove rather unexciting. This is because the last time these seats were contested was in 2021. At that time the Conservatives were doing well. Boris Johnson was credited with our country leading the world on the Covid vaccine. The Hartlepool by-election the same day saw the Conservatives gain the seat from Labour. Sir Keir Starmer, seeing his Party doing worse than under Jeremy Corbyn, privately considered resigning. The local elections saw the National Equivalent Vote share, according to Rallings and Thrasher, with the Conservatives on 40 per cent and Labour on 30 per cent.
If the current Government continues to perform as poorly as it has been, perhaps we will have a similar Conservative lead over Labour by May. That would imply a rather dull set of results.
Thus the psephologists and the media will rely on Reform UK for excitement. They are sure to pick up lots of council seats. But might they gain control of any councils?
Essex will be one to watch. Of Reform UK’s five seats in Parliament, two come from that county – Clacton, and South Basildon and East Thurrock. There were other seats in Essex where Reform UK candidates came second – including Castle Point, Basildon and Billericay, Rayleigh and Wickford, Thurrock, Brentwood and Ongar, and Maldon. The Tories can no longer count on the allegiance of Essex Man – with his values of patriotism and hard work. There is a village near Chelmsford called Stock which is taking to the polls tomorrow in a by-election for Essex County Council. So that will give us some clues. Thurrock is a separate unitary authority – it declared UDI some years ago. It also has elections in May and that must be one of Reform UK’s best chances.
Lincolnshire will be another Reform UK target. Boston and Skegness returned Richard Tice as their MP at the General Election. Louth and Horncastle and Brigg and Immingham were among the other seats where his Party did well. There is a gimmicky new post of Metro Mayor for Greater Lincolnshire being contested for the first time. Dame Andrea Jenkyns is standing for Reform UK. It will be high profile but the post has little real power. Who runs the county council matters a lot more.
Kent is likely to be another target. Reform UK won a by-election there last month, giving them its first seat on that Council.
Then we have Doncaster. That currently has a directly elected Labour Mayor (with real power) and a majority of Labour councillors. Nick Fletcher, the former MP for Don Valley, will be the Conservative candidate for Mayor – he set out his ambitions on this site on Monday. I’m sure he will fight a strong campaign. But even in 2021 Labour had a large majority. This will also be an obvious Reform UK target. I’m pleased that the electoral system is being changed to first past the post. However, in this instance Labour could benefit. Conservative and Reform UK supporters who might have had the inclination to give second preferences to each other will not be able to do so.
Back in 2021, Reform UK already existed, of course. But they had negligible impact in the local elections. Given they are starting from scratch it makes predictions difficult. But let’s suppose that somewhere – Thurrock perhaps – they come from nowhere and actually take power. Not just as coalition partners but they get an overall majority of the seats. The lights flash. Nigel goes to a local pub the next day to congratulate them. But once all the cheering stops, the tricky part begins.
They will meet the council officials, or “officers” as they are known. Full of congratulations. Friendly but respectful. Could they just take your BACS details when you have a moment, to start paying you a huge wodge in allowances. So far, so good. There will be a briefing with lots of charts about all the different council departments. Quite necessary, of course: we have the unusual situation of new councillors immediately being in leadership positions. But already the master and servant relationship appears to established in favour of those who are unelected. The planning officers and social workers talk in baffling jargon. Is it right to nod politely? Or ask what they mean? Is it a statutory requirement to attend the diversity training? That has been implied if not stated directly. Some of the newbies are made “Cabinet Member” for something or another. Some are asked to sign documents approving all sorts of things – the renewal of a contract for this, a capital works programme for that. “Very happy to answer any questions, councillor….”
They were elected on a pledge to cut Council Tax, slash bureaucracy, cut wasteful spending, tackle the mismanagement of services. The finance director presents a report of the budget including figures that look pretty huge but he then adds that everything has been cut to the bone and its all very complicated. Oh dear, Children’s Services are already over budget for the last quarter.
It is possible for the new councillors to get a grip of the situation. But it requires determination and ability. You have to work out when the officials are telling you the truth and when they are trying it on. Most of all it needs clear beliefs and the willingness to make decisions that reflect them – rather than passively being swept along by the machine.
So far as the politics are concerned any instance of woke and bureaucratic excess or extravagant spending will be scrutinised. “Look at what happens when Reform UK are actually in charge? They don’t have a clue.”
Will Reform UK’s new council back the NIMBYS or the developers? Perhaps they were elected promising to cancel new housing but are then told it has to go ahead anyway. So half a dozen Reform UK councillors resign in fury and form a councillors residents group.
I hope I am wrong about this. It may well be that we see Conservative/Reform UK coalitions taking over in some Council Chamber and that the combination of Conservative experience with Reform UK’s energy and indignation and shared policy objectives makes for a success. It may be that Reform UK come up with some capable people who are up to the job. One can imagine, for example, Rupert Lowe, the Reform UK MP for Great Yarmouth, being a capable Council leader – not taking any nonsense. He is otherwise engaged. But might some municipal Rupert Lowe’s emerge?
My friendly advice to Reform UK is to be careful what they wish for. Opposition is easy. Winning power would give them a chance to prove themselves as equal to the task. Or not, as the case may be.