Callum Price is Director of Communications at the Institute of Economic Affairs
In 2022, John Ashmore coined the term ‘boiling frog Britain’. He outlined several areas which were in steady decline, frogs that were being slowly boiled like in our planning system and energy infrastructure, that make the UK ‘a much poorer, less productive country than it could be’. Two and half years down the line, and the pot is truly bubbling.
This is bad, but it may be necessary. The pot may need to reach boiling point before the frog will hop out – to mangle the metaphor. Janan Ganesh calls this the ‘Carter Rule’: rich democracies won’t make substantial and necessary change successfully without a full-blown crisis.
Ganesh names the rule for former US President Jimmy Carter, who was ultimately a victim of things being bad, but not quite bad enough to bring about change. The parallels between Carter and Keir Starmer are hard to ignore. People are beginning to feel the malaise in Britain. They are frustrated that things don’t work, that wages haven’t improved in over ten years, that transport is expensive and never on time, and that it’s impossible to get a timely doctor’s appointment. Not to mention fears over crime and immigration.
The sense of decline is being accelerated by our friends across the pond. The American eye of Sauron has swiveled in our direction and is shining a light on some pretty brutal failings that had been flying too far below the radar for years. From the grooming gangs scandal to our energy policy. And so the heat is turned up and the frog approaches boiling point.
To his credit, the Prime Minister has set out his view that Britain needs fixing and, with a heavy dose of Tory-bashing, the areas he wants to fix. The ambition of the planning reforms as laid out so far is welcome, and he is making some positive noises on the NHS too.
However, you will find few who are optimistic about his chances of success. The Carter Rule may posit that this is basically out of his control, that his plans won’t get the traction they require because people aren’t ready for them yet.
This is part of the story, but the problem is exacerbated by the fact that while the Prime Minister’s diagnosis is right his prescription is, to varying degrees, insufficient. More choice and a role for private providers in our healthcare is key, but why are we still pretending that the government knows exactly how many diagnostic centres are needed for over 60 million people and what their opening hours should be? The attitude and detail on planning reforms is promising, but it still accepts the damaging premise that private citizens need central government approval to build things we desperately need.
But if Starmer is our Carter – who will be our Ronald Reagan? Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage are the leading contenders by virtue of their current roles. But as always, policies matter more than personnel.
The ground on which this battle is to be fought is still being decided. Immigration will surely be front and centre, along with crime and policing. The size and role of the state could well be the third. This topic, while getting less attention currently than other areas, is rising up the agenda worldwide (see Elon Musk’s DOGE and Javier Milei’s chainsaw) and is arguably much more important to day-to-day living standards.
The best political leaders, Reagan among them, lead from the front. They set the political weather as much as possible and take the public with them. But as the Carter rule suggests, you can’t do this in a vacuum. If a leader is to grasp the nettle of real radical reform necessary to grow our economy and improve living standards, they will require some level of sympathy to start with.
And so we are back to the British frog in the boiling pot. Among UK voters support for high tax-and-spend has fallen to its lowest share in a decade, while support for reducing government spending is growing. Though the consensus is still for the contradictory lower taxes and higher spending.
This is where leadership comes in.
If one of Badenoch or Farage (or Robert Jenrick or Rupert Lowe?) wants to be Britain’s Reagan and turn our fortunes around they will need to lead from the front, make the most of the nascent support for change and make the case, as Reagan did, for stripping back the state. They will need to sell to the voters a world in which the government won’t be throwing bad money after good, that won’t be propping up inefficient industries or buying votes from pensioners at the cost of the young, that won’t pray at the feet of the NHS or raise trade barriers to protect special interest groups.
The easier side of that sell comes with the upsides of a more dynamic economy that could be brought about. The growth that comes from free enterprise, and the prosperity and wealth that follows – not to mention the public services that can function properly.
There is an opportunity in front of us to use Britain’s contemporary decline to make the case for the radical change that would benefit us all. But it will require leadership, bravery, and the right set of policies. The frog is approaching boiling point but if someone is willing to put their hand in the pot it can still be saved.
Callum Price is Director of Communications at the Institute of Economic Affairs
In 2022, John Ashmore coined the term ‘boiling frog Britain’. He outlined several areas which were in steady decline, frogs that were being slowly boiled like in our planning system and energy infrastructure, that make the UK ‘a much poorer, less productive country than it could be’. Two and half years down the line, and the pot is truly bubbling.
This is bad, but it may be necessary. The pot may need to reach boiling point before the frog will hop out – to mangle the metaphor. Janan Ganesh calls this the ‘Carter Rule’: rich democracies won’t make substantial and necessary change successfully without a full-blown crisis.
Ganesh names the rule for former US President Jimmy Carter, who was ultimately a victim of things being bad, but not quite bad enough to bring about change. The parallels between Carter and Keir Starmer are hard to ignore. People are beginning to feel the malaise in Britain. They are frustrated that things don’t work, that wages haven’t improved in over ten years, that transport is expensive and never on time, and that it’s impossible to get a timely doctor’s appointment. Not to mention fears over crime and immigration.
The sense of decline is being accelerated by our friends across the pond. The American eye of Sauron has swiveled in our direction and is shining a light on some pretty brutal failings that had been flying too far below the radar for years. From the grooming gangs scandal to our energy policy. And so the heat is turned up and the frog approaches boiling point.
To his credit, the Prime Minister has set out his view that Britain needs fixing and, with a heavy dose of Tory-bashing, the areas he wants to fix. The ambition of the planning reforms as laid out so far is welcome, and he is making some positive noises on the NHS too.
However, you will find few who are optimistic about his chances of success. The Carter Rule may posit that this is basically out of his control, that his plans won’t get the traction they require because people aren’t ready for them yet.
This is part of the story, but the problem is exacerbated by the fact that while the Prime Minister’s diagnosis is right his prescription is, to varying degrees, insufficient. More choice and a role for private providers in our healthcare is key, but why are we still pretending that the government knows exactly how many diagnostic centres are needed for over 60 million people and what their opening hours should be? The attitude and detail on planning reforms is promising, but it still accepts the damaging premise that private citizens need central government approval to build things we desperately need.
But if Starmer is our Carter – who will be our Ronald Reagan? Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage are the leading contenders by virtue of their current roles. But as always, policies matter more than personnel.
The ground on which this battle is to be fought is still being decided. Immigration will surely be front and centre, along with crime and policing. The size and role of the state could well be the third. This topic, while getting less attention currently than other areas, is rising up the agenda worldwide (see Elon Musk’s DOGE and Javier Milei’s chainsaw) and is arguably much more important to day-to-day living standards.
The best political leaders, Reagan among them, lead from the front. They set the political weather as much as possible and take the public with them. But as the Carter rule suggests, you can’t do this in a vacuum. If a leader is to grasp the nettle of real radical reform necessary to grow our economy and improve living standards, they will require some level of sympathy to start with.
And so we are back to the British frog in the boiling pot. Among UK voters support for high tax-and-spend has fallen to its lowest share in a decade, while support for reducing government spending is growing. Though the consensus is still for the contradictory lower taxes and higher spending.
This is where leadership comes in.
If one of Badenoch or Farage (or Robert Jenrick or Rupert Lowe?) wants to be Britain’s Reagan and turn our fortunes around they will need to lead from the front, make the most of the nascent support for change and make the case, as Reagan did, for stripping back the state. They will need to sell to the voters a world in which the government won’t be throwing bad money after good, that won’t be propping up inefficient industries or buying votes from pensioners at the cost of the young, that won’t pray at the feet of the NHS or raise trade barriers to protect special interest groups.
The easier side of that sell comes with the upsides of a more dynamic economy that could be brought about. The growth that comes from free enterprise, and the prosperity and wealth that follows – not to mention the public services that can function properly.
There is an opportunity in front of us to use Britain’s contemporary decline to make the case for the radical change that would benefit us all. But it will require leadership, bravery, and the right set of policies. The frog is approaching boiling point but if someone is willing to put their hand in the pot it can still be saved.