It was a question that has hung in the air for a while in Tory circles and, most importantly, within Tory Leader Kemi Badenoch’s office: what do you do with a man like Robert Jenrick.
Do you bring him closer into the circle, or do you deal with his behaviour – as described by one shadow cabinet member as a “sore loser” – decisively. The first option brought fears: what if you do that only for him to then defect causing maximum damage. The latter had been flirted with for a while, but with Badenoch’s own leadership on shaky ground she could not have moved against him this time last year.
But her footing has changed and the answer came yesterday morning when Badenoch posted a statement and video on X sacking the shadow justice secretary from shadow cabinet, removing the Tory whip and suspending his membership from the party after discovering “irrefutable evidence” of Jenrick “plotting in secret to defect”. In the afternoon, the defection officially came with Jenrick delivering his speech at Reform HQ, saying: “The Conservative Party in Westminster isn’t sorry. Still doesn’t get it. And hasn’t really changed.” He admitted that he had already “resolved to leave” some time before Badenoch decided to move, having been in talks with Nigel Farage for four months, though there won’t be an accompanying by-election.
The decision to sack Jenrick came quickly, without warning, and although one senior Tory told me “we have known for a while”, it was only the night before her statement that they were “100 per cent sure he [Jenrick] was poised to defect”.
On Wednesday night LOTO were discussing how to proceed having been handed screenshots of Jenrick’s draft final resignation speech and an accompanying media plan. The Tory chairman Kevin Hollinrake has told broadcasters that the leak came from his “inner circle” – and it turns out, according to The Times, there was a mole in Jenrick’s team who had been passing over information about his plans.
I was told the speech LOTO discovered was damning and included direct attacks on his former colleagues and members of the shadow cabinet, including Priti Patel, James Cleverly and Mel Stride. One senior Tory source told me his comments were “slagging off” those named as “not being radical enough and representing a failed party”. Patel was highlighted for being behind the ‘Boriswave’ of mass migration as former Home Secretary, Stride for overseeing an “explosion of the welfare bill”. That turns out to be exactly what happened and Reform’s new joiner attacked his old colleagues. It marked a change in attitude, just at the end of 2024 Jenrick tweeted about how Stride “has showcased the best of the Conservative Party”.
At 6.45pm on Wednesday night Badenoch’s closest LOTO team, including her chief of staff Henry Newman and senior adviser Stephen Gilbert, were working away on a plan while she went off to an arranged dinner. I understand the advice from her top team was: “You can’t be a sitting duck, you have got to get ahead of it.”
Although LOTO had the speech and media plan, they still weren’t sure of when the defection would take place – and with Reform UK having a press conference scheduled the next day they wanted to move beforehand, just in case.
So on Thursday morning, as Badenoch travelled up for visits in Scotland, it was up to Chief Whip Rebecca Harris to make the call to Jenrick. I understand that at first he denied the accusations, until he slammed the phone down. Since then his phone was in do not disturb mode and it was only after he gave his defection speech that I was able to get through to anyone on his team.
Badenoch in her original statement, said that Jenrick’s plans were “designed to be as damaging as possible to his shadow cabinet colleagues and the wider Conservative Party” – and I understand his attacks on colleagues made up part of that judgement. What also went into that were his plans to move so soon (the leaked speech’s reference to becoming Reform’s 281,000th member was a key give away), ahead of May’s local elections, and her inner circle suspected a coordinated attack plan.
One Tory source said: “We were not going to let them get away with it ahead of important local elections for the party.
“Kemi doesn’t fly off the handle or take snap judgements in that way, she really looked at evidence and it was totally irrefutable – he was about to defect and about to defect to Reform with maximum damage ahead of the locals.”
I’m told that Jenrick was lined up for some of the weekend broadcast media round, including a prime time slot on Sunday’s Laura Kuenssberg show where one senior Tory tells me: “The thinking is that he might have used that to inflict damage, float it – and then all for a big Reform style announcement and press conference on the Monday.” Included in the media plan that was discovered by Badenoch’s team, I understand, was a press Q&A that would have been similar to Reform UK’s previous defection announcements and is exactly what went on to happen. Although Jenrick turned up awkwardly late after Farage announced him and he didn’t appear immediately. A Tory source tells me it was because Reform’s latest joiner was having to rewrite parts of his speech that they had released from their leaked version, but team Jenrick deny this was the case.
Questions about whether Badenoch’s move would come off successfully or not have centred on whether this strengthens her hands or triggers any of Jenrick’s usual allies and friends to follow, but I understand that – despite worried phone calls from the whips and Jenrick calling on more Conservatives to join him this morning in a Daily Telegraph op-ed – there are no such plans. The consensus across most of the party is that this only bolsters Badenoch.
“People have no time for this crap,” one Tory whip tells me, “with Jenrick he lost and never accepted he lost”.
Another adds: “This was make or break but has completely confirmed Kemi’s hold on the party.”
One tells me that Jenrick “has totally lost it” and “let his personal ambition get the better of him”, adding that Badenoch “has dealt with this really well”.
The rest of shadow cabinet who only found out when Badenoch posted her tweet have been left angry and confused. “On a personal level it is a shame,” one member tells me, “but colleagues are happy with Kemi’s move – it strengthens her and we are at a point we need that”.
Others are more scathing. “Ambition took over his being completely. He became consumed by it and slightly deranged.” They hoped the deal with Reform UK wouldn’t go ahead and joked that Jenrick would be left with Rupert Lowe to form a ‘Your Party’ version of the right.
Badenoch is understood to be especially frustrated that Jenrick sat through Wednesday’s meeting of shadow cabinet as normal, still piping up over discussions on defence policy and clashing with Badenoch over whether Britain was broken, having also sat through a recent away day on party strategy for all of the shadow cabinet, I’m told, making “copious notes” ahead of his defection. Yesterday she was calmly scathing. “All I would say to Nigel,” Badenoch told GB News, “is Rob’s not my problem any more — he’s your problem.”
One shadow cabinet member tells me that local members have already been in touch with them to congratulate Badenoch on the move. “There is relief that the question has been finally resolved,” one senior party source adds, “and in the Tory party’s favour”.
Lynton Crosby used to have a strategy of getting “barnacles off the boat” to shed anything that hindered the Tories electoral appeal. It has been used to describe the Labour party’s new strategy. One Tory MP tells me that it applies more accurately to this morning’s decision.
Jenrick’s replacement as shadow justice secretary is Nick Timothy, the first of the 2024 intake to get the big promotion, having previously worked in No10 and the Home Office. As one Tory whip messages: “It is a great choice. Smart, sensible, loves detail and loyal.”
To round off a chaotic day, the party chairman Kevin Hollinrake sent a message to the all Tory MP WhatsApp group, which Jenrick had been removed from earlier that morning: “The easiest option is to dither and delay in the hope that worst won’t happen. What I saw in that room last night and this morning was someone who was calm, composed and unafraid to make the toughest decision. It was undoubtedly the right one. We are so lucky to have such a strong and decisive leader.”
While Robert Jenrick was delivering his defection speech Kemi Badenoch meanwhile was continuing her Scotland trip, sipping whisky at Johnnie Walker in Edinburgh. She deserved a stiff drink.