Emma Best is a London-wide London Assembly Member and a councillor in Waltham Forest.
Instinct and evidence tell you that at the next General Election our party faces both heavy and shock losses, with a push to continue in Government coming down to the wire. We saw this in the early hours of this morning in Selby and Ainsty and Somerton and Frome. My commiserations go to Faye Purbrick and Claire Holmes who would have made wonderful MPs for their areas.
However, instinct and evidence tell me the picture is different in London. I know nobody likes an ‘I told you so’ commentator but since the announcement of these by-elections, I have told anyone who has asked or would listen that we will hold Uxbridge and South Ruislip, while in other by-elections, with even higher majorities, conversely that would be an unlikely task.
It isn’t just in this latest by-election that we have seen positive results in London. In Bullsmoor, Enfield, in May we achieved a significant swing in what was once a Labour heartland. The overwhelming message I heard, from lifelong Labour voters, was ‘get Sadiq Khan out’. In June in South Hampstead, Camden, Don Williams came close to taking a seat from Labour with another massive swing. The message from voters here was more centred around Rishi having allowed a path back to the Conservatives for some, however, a commonality both sets of voters shared was a wealth of anger at their local Labour-led Councils.
In other areas of London it is not the Conservative party that is the beneficiary of a collapsing Labour vote. In Boleyn ward, Newham, just last week an independent candidate overturned a massive Labour majority in one of their safest seats. The Greens also continue to make ground and take seats in places like Islington.
There are two pivotal reasons for this.
Firstly, Labour is lost in London; blighted by a Mayor intent on forcing inner London policy on outer London – and letting communities down in inner London with failings on crime, provision of affordable housing, and reliable public transport. There are also organisational challenges with the mass exodus of London Momentum activists from the party and deep-rooted factional tensions beyond what I have seen in other areas of the country. With widening opportunities across the country, talented Labour organisers and local political leaders are also seeking pastures new outside London as they seek to climb the political ladder.
Second, our own individuals. Our voluntary party is immensely strong at this moment and we are blessed with committed organisers from East Ham to East Dulwich, and from Isleworth to Islington. Those in our stronger areas continue to operate astutely and tirelessly while there is a swell of talent and commitment in areas where we have previously been weaker. Notable individuals there are laying the groundwork, connecting with voters and building strong teams to challenge Labour in a way I have previously not seen.
What does this mean? That with the right campaign, Susan Hall can make it across the line in May 2024 against all expectation. Undoubtedly, if the proposal of London wide ULEZ expansion had been on the table in May 2021, Shaun Bailey would currently be Mayor of London; it is a mistake that we didn’t make clearer that risk in 2021. We must now make sure that people understand fully that the real goal of Londonwide ULEZ and this Mayor is to introduce pay-per-mile charging across every road in London.
We must fully include, trust, and listen, to those local leaders from the voluntary party who know exactly how to win on their doorstep. With a hyper-local campaign focused on the priorities of Londoners across the capital, respecting the individuality of each ward (let alone borough), we can win big in London.