Sarah Ingham is author of The Military Covenant: its impact on civil-military relations in Britain.
To Kingswood for the by-election campaign; blue rosette on and best foot forward.
The constituency is on the eastern fringe of Bristol. Due to be abolished before the general election in a boundary change, whoever wins Kingswood will be its MP only for a few months.
Given that this unnecessary contest will cost the taxpayer perhaps £250,000, many would surely echo the famously election-hesitant Brenda from (all-too-apt) Bristol: “You’re joking – not another one.”
Sam Bromiley, the Conservative candidate, is local, as embedded in the area as the coal which was dug out of the ground before the Middle Ages. As Conservative group leader on South Gloucestershire council, he knows the local issues that matter to residents, chiefly the prospect of 6,000 new homes being built on the Green Belt, which will change the character of several local villages.
While housing is undoubtedly needed, the Conservatives argue for alternative approaches, including prioritising brownfield sites (realised in Birmingham with its Brownfield First policy, as Andy Street detailed here on Tuesday).
The Green Belt sacrifice is being proposed by the council’s Liberal-Labour coalition, in charge since May. Their plan is likely to increase traffic on the already congested A4717 ring road. Kingswood motorists might soon be forced to pay in council-owned car parks, breaking last year’s election promise by all three parties to retain free parking.
The Lib-Lab anti-car measures will surely be a hard sell on the doorstep. The 2021 census found almost 90 per cent of households in South Gloucestershire had one or more cars or vans. While just over one-third of people per cent were then working from home, almost half were driving to work: just three per cent took the bus.
Kingswood is fair representation of Middle Britain, economically far closer to national median than, say, leafy Kingston & Surbiton (for now, Ed Davey’s constituency). The average house price was £320,000 for the year ending March 2023, compared to Kingston’s £525,000. For the full-time employed in Kingswood, the median gross weekly pay packet is £664; nationally it is £682.
With voting forms coming through letter boxes, last weekend’s campaigning effort focused on getting out the postal vote. Given the dire state of the polls, finding any Conservative voters seemed as likely as seeing Taylor Swift in the local Beefeater pub, but knocking on doors in Frenchay and Downend ward confounded expectations.
The Tory vote seemed to be holding up pretty well. Two previous Conservative voters explained that this time they were going to protest; only another two viewed the blue rosette like a vampire might garlic and slammed their front doors. Overwhelmingly, however, even those who were recorded as never having been supporters were civil and, above all, appreciated being canvassed face-to-face.
In his final speech to the House of Commons, Boris Johnson observed: “It’s not Twitter that counts, it’s the people who sent us here.” Alas, across all parties, too many MPs have ignored this wisdom.
Kingswood highlights how remote MPs can be from voters. The by-election was caused by the resignation of Chris Skidmore. This born-again green quit the Commons over licences for oil and gas extraction in the North Sea. Of the constituency’s 118,000 households, 487 – or 0.4 per cent – rely on renewable energy, while a stonking 77 per cent use gas and four per cent use oil.
Clearly, Skidmore was happy to condemn his constituents to the expensive insecurity of dependence on energy from overseas. According to the Register of Members’ Financial Interests, on top of his almost £90k a year salary, he enjoyed a couple of lucrative side hustles. Worth £80,000 a year, one was from a firm which had previously paid him “for advisory and research services in the area of energy and the environment”. Well rid.
What is it with MPs and money? At PMQs on Wednesday, the Labour leader made much of George Freeman’s ministerial resignation, prompted in part because £120,000 simply isn’t enough. In a tin-eared attempt to be relatable, Rachel Reeves recently bleated that her MP’s salary (excluding outside earnings) leaves her “short”.
Given that the Shadow Chancellor and her civil servant hubby must bring in at least £200,000 a year of taxpayer-funded salaries between them, this admission hardly inspires confidence in her ability to oversee the UK’s economy.
It’s also a bit rich for Keir Starmer to bang on about how others are financially out-of-touch when he was treated to a Chelsea vs Arsenal match in October. The hospitality for two people was worth £2,400 – about a month’s salary in Kingswood. Never mind the cost-of-living – what about the cost-of-living-it-up?
In recent weeks, Westminster has been eager to show support for the wronged sub-postmasters. Mr Bates vs the Post Office struck a chord, not least because of its unusually sympathetic portrayal of Middle Britain. Metropolitan types, those who demanded a second referendum and Angela “scum” Rayner, can be patronising about places like Kingswood, where 58 per cent voted Brexit and the Conservatives had an 11,200 majority in 2019.
Bromiley has a tireless campaign team which is often joined by Conservative MPs. They should all do a stint. Far better they are knocking on doors than indulging in pointless, party-destructive plotting. As one canvasser joked: “They’re not making it easy for us.”
The by-election could well be a referendum on local issues. In coalition with Labour on the council, are the Lib Dems soft-pedalling the contest? Rupert Lowe, an ex-banker in a covert coat (and, squints, silk Hermès tie?) who is standing for for Reform UK, seems an unlikely match for Kingswood. Ditto the Labour candidate, who has just resigned as mayor of Lewisham.
Talking to voters at the grassroots beats any focus group. Like farmers across Europe, many of us are fed up. MPs urgently need to get out into Middle Britain, have the humility to listen and heed concerns about policies imposed without any democratic mandate, including immigration.
To paraphrase E.M. Forster, “only re-connect”. And good luck Sam.