Levelling-Up’s loss is Strictly’s gain. If one believes Tim Shipman, Michael Gove plans on a cha-cha-change of career, applying his dancefloor expertise to the service of the nation now he is exiting the House of Commons. If he follows the Ed Balls route, it won’t be long until he is rehabilitated as a national treasure, hosting Good Morning Britain, and podcasting with Tristram Hunt.
Whatever your thoughts on the Renters Reform Bill, this is not the most productive use of the experience, intelligence, and eloquence of Vladimir Illyich Gove. Even if he often been the Ultimus Romanorum of Blairism, Surrey Heath’s outgoing MP was the one of the highlights of #FourteenWastedYears. He and Nick Gibb squared up to the Blob and revolutionised school standards.
Before he can swap the red boxes for the sequins and spray tan, Gove has one last political role to play. Having tried on the roles of Brutus, Greta fanboy, and lockdown’s strongest solider, he is now playing the face of the ongoing exodus of sitting Tory MPs. At the time of writing, 78 have announced they are standing down – beyond 1997’s post-war record of 72. Play it again, Sam!
One cannot open a window into the souls of those departing the Commons. Some – such as Bill Cash and David Evennett – have been MPs, on and off, since the 1980s, and are as entitled to a well-earned retirement as anyone. In the age of social media – and when two MPs have been murdered in the last decade – many will have decided the job is too stressful, intrusive, and dangerous.
Being an MP often strikes me as being a pretty appalling job. The illusion of power without the reality, the general hatred of the general public even as you act as their unofficial social worker, the constant travel and prolonged separation from family – for those of us politicos who once coveted a career as an elected representative, it is chastening to see how the sausages are made.
Nonetheless, there are enough brave souls willing to endure the privations that our democracy can function. The inherent corollary is a lack of job security. Despite whatever fluff they dress up their standing down declarations in, it is impossible to avoid that the reason so many MPs are skedaddling is the opinion polls. They can read. Even those with majorities of 20,000+ are vulnerable.
Hence Gove’s decision. The time was when Surrey Heath had more blues than a B. B. King record. The then-Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster has a majority of 18, 349. But with the Liberal Democrats having taken control of the local council in 2023 and hunting for Tory scalps, Gove has fallen on his sword, rather than face the 5 AM humiliation in some soulless local leisure centre.
The author of Michael Portillo: The Future of the Right has learnt from his hero’s fate. But that doesn’t make Gove’s departure any more lamentable. Even if he had only been offering his wisdom from the Opposition benches, Parliament always needs ex-ministers to tell current occupants of their roles what they tried, why it didn’t work, and what they think they should now do instead.
In total, the Conservatives will lose over 1,000 years of Commons experience from departing MPs. Some of that experience will be more equal than others. I don’t imagine Rachel Reeves is too desperate for Kwasi Kwarteng’s advice on how to deliver a Budget. But what of Gibb, Theresa May, Robert Halfon, Graham Brady, and ConservativeHome’s own John Redwood, to name a few?
This isn’t the only way the Commons – and the Conservative Party – will lose out from the ongoing exodus. The general trend is against talented people going into politics. If you can earn far more in the City or at the Bar for far less stress, you must be either hideously naive or worryingly sadomasochistic to head into politics. The quality of our MPs is in decline. Plus ça change.
One exacerbating tendncy is the much-discussed phenomenon of local associations selecting what we have dubbed “local champions”. After the last few years, it’s understandable why local associations may not be overly receptive to CCHQ’s attempts to nudge them towards a stranger or Spad. The evidence suggests local campaigners are better at keeping seats vacated by MPs.
But the “Libdemification” of candidate selection – the trend, driven by the Yellow Peril since the 1990s, of pushing for a local MP to be “your man in Westminister” rather than “Westminster’s man here” – is bad for the future. As our former Editor highlighted, MPs primarily intending to keep their local A+E open and stop any houses from being built will not tackle our myriad national challenges.
From a Tory perspective, it also denudes the parliamentary party of future shadow ministers and – God willing – ministers. Complain about the A-list – that hotbed of “pseuds and poseurs of London’s chi-chi- set” that gave us, erm, Priti Patel, Suella Braverman, and Liz Truss – all one likes. But a party of puffed up local councillors will not lead a second Conservative revolution.
The potential of attracting candidates from backgrounds beyond local activism will also be dented if Labour goes through with its pledge to ban MPs from having “second jobs”. Leave aside the absurdity of doing so when ministers are also MPs – and where the Shadow Cabinet keeps cropping up on LBC – and see how the attractiveness of the job for successful individuals is reduced.
The citizen-legislator would go the way of the Dodo. Voters loathe professional politicians whilst creating more of them. Behold the future: a Tory parliamentary party dominated by a motley crew of honest backwoodsmen fighting to fill those potholes, and a small cadre of committed politicos, unable quite to monetise that PPE 2:1 in the City, now inflicting their neuroses upon Westminster.
After Rishi Sunak’s experience, how many of those successful in the private sector are going to listen to CCHQ’s blandishments to swap megabucks for the Shawshank compact? Without what our Deputy Editor labelled “more money, more power, more privacy”, they’d be mad. Despite the best efforts of Civic Future and the Centre for Policy Studies, politics will not become any sexier.
Of course, amidst the gloom, promising candidates have been selected. Keep an eye on Nick Timothy, Rupert Harrison, Katie Lam, and our Alex Deane if they are elected. But for all there has been to complain about often loose association with what even a generous mind might call conservatism amongst current MPs, things can get worse. A lot of ministerial experience could be lost.
There are still six more weeks. Nothing is written. CCHQ has an awful lot of constituencies still to fill and not a lot of time to fill them. By-election rules will be mobilised. But until the process of candidate selection has been radically changed, until politicians are paid a hell of a lot more, and until being a Tory MP seems less of a bonkers career, the party will have a recruitment problem.
Whatever the result, this will not make post-election life any easier. As Biblically appropriate as it might be, this is one exodus one hopes does not condemn us to spend too much time wandering in the wilderness.