Paul Hodgins is the former Conservative Leader of Richmond Council
With Trump winning in the US, Labour off to a shaky start, and a fresh no-nonsense leader in Kemi Badenoch, many in the Conservative Party are hoping for a Trump-like Conservative comeback in the UK.
Articles abound recommending what the Conservatives must now do. Confidence is wobbly, but the institutional wisdom prevails. Politics goes in cycles. The Conservative Party is 200 years old. It can update itself, keep fighting, give Labour a good kicking at PMQs, and wait for the Government to fail. Emulate Keir Starmer and Trump. There are even signs in some of the headline polling of a small bounce (likely driven by voters who lost their WFA).
Like so much thinking in the Conservative Party, still dominated by the Oxford PPE view of the world, this thinking is devoid of any real analysis. Good story telling, blissfully unconnected to any hard facts getting in the way of the narrative each individual wants to tell.
Both the populists and non-populists in the party need to face reality.
Consider a few key numbers:
- 3% – Trump’s improved vote share over 2020. Trump had much in his favour. Media attention, X/Elon Musk, a weak opponent, perception of a poor economy (though we would kill to have it here), anger at Biden, worldwide anti-establishment sentiment. And yet, Trump’s vote only increased 3%. It is a myth there was some tectonic shift in the US. It is still about 50/50.
- 15% – The minimum improvement on 2024 the Conservatives will need at the next election. The Conservative vote share in 2024 was an all-time low 24%. However, of the voters who will still be around in 2029, the vote share was about 19% (more below).
- 2 – The number of parties in the US. Trump had no competition on the right. There are now 2 parties on the right in the UK, and by the time of next election, possibly 3. Reform is the right-wing anti-establishment vote in the UK, not the Conservatives. It is fantasy to believe the ultimate establishment party can make them redundant anytime soon.
- 13% – The most important of all numbers for the Conservatives, which almost no one is taking seriously. There was indeed a fundamental realignment post Brexit. But it was not red-wall/blue-wall, which was a temporary Get Brexit Done/anti-Corbyn vote. Both of those are done now. The realignment was the (currently) older voters vs the (currently) younger voters. Pre-referendum, the Conservatives consistently had the support of 30-35% of under 50s. That started to decline post-referendum, and in 2024 crashed to 13% (Yougov). Meanwhile, support among the over 65s barely fell from 45% in 2015 to 41% in 2024. The under 50s now hate the Conservatives. Any analysis over the next four years of Conservative popularity not shown by age is next to useless, unless the election is tomorrow.
- 30% – The second most important number. The difference in Conservative support between the under 50s and over 65s. This difference used to be consistently 10%. In that world, the institutional wisdom that people get more Conservative as they age had validity. Today, it is lazy delusion to believe that under 50s will go from more intensely hating the Conservatives to converting at 3-4x their historical rate. When the current over 65s go to the great ballot box in the sky, their support for the anachronistic Conservatives goes with them
- 94k – the number of voters in the leadership election, by far the lowest ever, with a suspected average age of over 70
- 1 – The number of weeks Boris’ book was top of Amazon’s best seller list. There is no great fondness for the past administration, except among members.
Why is it important to revisit these numbers?
Firstly, you can already see it. There is no serious reform on the horizon for the party organisation, which is fundamentally broken (this requires a whole article) in its structure, culture, talent, and membership, worse than is even acknowledged. The old broad church coalition is gone. There is no real desire for unity, just victory/expulsion of the other side. If the core remains broken, which it will, nothing else can change.
Some of the thinkers in the party have been giving their recommendations. Onward wrote a lengthy election report with some decent analysis of the numbers, then recommended a continued focus on older voters. Neil O’Brien, one of the most considered MPs seemingly much loved by ConservativeHome, produced a plan to improve our towns and cities. A grumpy mixture of banning, fining, and vilifying new technologies. Twenty two MPs signed a Next Gen Tories letter with ideas of appealing to the under 50s. Tax cuts, development on brownfield land, protect the greenbelt, childcare.
All the same old, tired formula. Nothing new. Nothing imaginative. Nothing showing any understanding of the catastrophic loss of risk appetite, efficiency, and aspiration in the UK. Einstein’s insanity.
Secondly, and more importantly, there are some early stage well-meaning efforts by younger people (under 50s) to try to influence the party. Get the establishment to see what they are doing wrong. Make them realise deflated entrepreneurs have had enough and are leaving the UK. But eventually they will realise that what they are attempting is like trying to coax AI out of Jacob Rees-Mogg’s typewriter. The machine is simply not built for it. Of course they will be paid lip service by the party. But the roots are too deep, and the talent is not there.
Read Matthew Syed’s recent column about the incompetents in Washington holding back the innovators and risk takers in the US. Or Nate Silver’s book On The Edge (no, not that one) about the Village (establishment) vs the River (entrepreneurs and innovators). Multiply by 5, and you have Britain and the Conservative Party. It is what gives us £100m bat tunnels, indefinitely closed bridges, hugely over budget and over time nuclear power stations, and bans on anything that moves.
As ConservativeHome’s William Atkinson pointed out, there is an entitled belief that the worst Conservative Government is better than the alternatives. Preserve the Conservative Party, and tell ourselves it is best for the country.
It is not good enough.
The world has changed dramatically. The country desperately needs quality leadership. The UK is falling further and further behind, and the Conservatives led us here. Labour is just as lost. Reform is now a serious player, but it is a protest party. The LibDems live by the luck of FPTP, but they are not a serious party. There is no party now speaking for those who want a thriving, dynamic country. No party addressing the longer term challenges for the country. No party that gives any reason for tangible optimism.
It brings us to Niall Ferguson’s statement about why he recently helped create the University of Austin, “We decided that the only solution was to create a new university because the old ones just couldn’t be fixed.”
Tim Montgomerie stated on his podcast that he is actively considering leaving the Conservatives for Reform. He should, and those who are aligned with Reform should go with him. Why stay in a bickering party that does not work anymore, simply for nostalgia.
For the rest, it is time to face reality and stop trying to refit HMS Victory to fight battles in the modern world. A party that is going to tackle the country’s long term challenges, to attract the best and the brightest, to take risks, and to take the country with them, can now only be built from the ground up.
It is happening. Like all new projects, it will take some time, creativity, and good people.
But it is folly trying to fix what cannot be fixed.
Paul Hodgins is the former Conservative Leader of Richmond Council
With Trump winning in the US, Labour off to a shaky start, and a fresh no-nonsense leader in Kemi Badenoch, many in the Conservative Party are hoping for a Trump-like Conservative comeback in the UK.
Articles abound recommending what the Conservatives must now do. Confidence is wobbly, but the institutional wisdom prevails. Politics goes in cycles. The Conservative Party is 200 years old. It can update itself, keep fighting, give Labour a good kicking at PMQs, and wait for the Government to fail. Emulate Keir Starmer and Trump. There are even signs in some of the headline polling of a small bounce (likely driven by voters who lost their WFA).
Like so much thinking in the Conservative Party, still dominated by the Oxford PPE view of the world, this thinking is devoid of any real analysis. Good story telling, blissfully unconnected to any hard facts getting in the way of the narrative each individual wants to tell.
Both the populists and non-populists in the party need to face reality.
Consider a few key numbers:
Why is it important to revisit these numbers?
Firstly, you can already see it. There is no serious reform on the horizon for the party organisation, which is fundamentally broken (this requires a whole article) in its structure, culture, talent, and membership, worse than is even acknowledged. The old broad church coalition is gone. There is no real desire for unity, just victory/expulsion of the other side. If the core remains broken, which it will, nothing else can change.
Some of the thinkers in the party have been giving their recommendations. Onward wrote a lengthy election report with some decent analysis of the numbers, then recommended a continued focus on older voters. Neil O’Brien, one of the most considered MPs seemingly much loved by ConservativeHome, produced a plan to improve our towns and cities. A grumpy mixture of banning, fining, and vilifying new technologies. Twenty two MPs signed a Next Gen Tories letter with ideas of appealing to the under 50s. Tax cuts, development on brownfield land, protect the greenbelt, childcare.
All the same old, tired formula. Nothing new. Nothing imaginative. Nothing showing any understanding of the catastrophic loss of risk appetite, efficiency, and aspiration in the UK. Einstein’s insanity.
Secondly, and more importantly, there are some early stage well-meaning efforts by younger people (under 50s) to try to influence the party. Get the establishment to see what they are doing wrong. Make them realise deflated entrepreneurs have had enough and are leaving the UK. But eventually they will realise that what they are attempting is like trying to coax AI out of Jacob Rees-Mogg’s typewriter. The machine is simply not built for it. Of course they will be paid lip service by the party. But the roots are too deep, and the talent is not there.
Read Matthew Syed’s recent column about the incompetents in Washington holding back the innovators and risk takers in the US. Or Nate Silver’s book On The Edge (no, not that one) about the Village (establishment) vs the River (entrepreneurs and innovators). Multiply by 5, and you have Britain and the Conservative Party. It is what gives us £100m bat tunnels, indefinitely closed bridges, hugely over budget and over time nuclear power stations, and bans on anything that moves.
As ConservativeHome’s William Atkinson pointed out, there is an entitled belief that the worst Conservative Government is better than the alternatives. Preserve the Conservative Party, and tell ourselves it is best for the country.
It is not good enough.
The world has changed dramatically. The country desperately needs quality leadership. The UK is falling further and further behind, and the Conservatives led us here. Labour is just as lost. Reform is now a serious player, but it is a protest party. The LibDems live by the luck of FPTP, but they are not a serious party. There is no party now speaking for those who want a thriving, dynamic country. No party addressing the longer term challenges for the country. No party that gives any reason for tangible optimism.
It brings us to Niall Ferguson’s statement about why he recently helped create the University of Austin, “We decided that the only solution was to create a new university because the old ones just couldn’t be fixed.”
Tim Montgomerie stated on his podcast that he is actively considering leaving the Conservatives for Reform. He should, and those who are aligned with Reform should go with him. Why stay in a bickering party that does not work anymore, simply for nostalgia.
For the rest, it is time to face reality and stop trying to refit HMS Victory to fight battles in the modern world. A party that is going to tackle the country’s long term challenges, to attract the best and the brightest, to take risks, and to take the country with them, can now only be built from the ground up.
It is happening. Like all new projects, it will take some time, creativity, and good people.
But it is folly trying to fix what cannot be fixed.