James Crouch is head of policy and public affairs at Opinium.
Rather than waiting to be embarrassed, Kemi Badenoch pre-emptively dismissed one of the most senior figures on the Conservative front bench over his dalliance with Reform UK. Not only was this move striking in itself, but more remarkably Badenoch appears to have pulled off something few would have expected from such a crisis: turning an episode that could have seriously destabilised her leadership into a personal PR victory.
Nevertheless, this episode has also brought to the fore some problems that the Conservative Party had, until now, been getting away with disguising.
It is important to emphasise the context in which this crisis occurred. Badenoch acted at a moment when she had already been steadily regaining authority and momentum as Conservative leader. Far from weakening her position, this episode appears to have reinforced it, and this is apparent in the immediate polling.
Opinium’s latest polling with The Spectator suggests that Conservative voters are firmly behind the action she took. Four in five (79 per cent) of those who voted Conservative at the last general election believe Badenoch was right to sack Robert Jenrick, with only six per cent believing she was wrong to do so. Strikingly, this judgement is not confined to her own party. Labour (67 per cent), Liberal Democrat (61 per cent), and Reform UK voters (61 per cent) also largely agree that, faced with clear evidence of an impending defection, she was right to act and remove her shadow justice secretary.
In short, the public as a whole, including many of Jenrick’s potential future voters, appears to agree that the Conservative leader made the correct call. This has strengthened Badenoch’s standing in several important ways.
When Conservative voters are asked directly about this, half (50 per cent) now say they think more positively of Badenoch as a result, while only eight per cent think more negatively of her. Opinion of the Conservative Party itself has also improved, with two in five (41 per cent) 2024 Conservative voters saying they now view the party more favourably following Jenrick’s dismissal. This suggests that Badenoch’s decision has gone firmly with the grain of those who backed the party at the last election.
It is always wise, however, to test direct reactions against broader tracking measures. And here too Badenoch demonstrates she has changed broader perceptions of her for the better. The proportion of Conservative voters who view Badenoch as “decisive” has risen sharply since August, from 42 per cent to 64 per cent. Her approval rating among Conservative voters has also jumped, standing at net +51 (60 per cent approve, 9 per cent disapprove).
Yet this episode has also reinforced longer-term problems for the Conservative Party. Some of the perceptions Badenoch had been working hard to improve have suffered, most notably on party unity. In December, 56 per cent of 2024 Conservative voters thought the party was united; that figure has fallen to only 42 per cent. Now almost a third (32 per cent) of the party’s own voters think it is disunited. The numerous defections to Reform simply had not been a major consideration for ordinary voters until now.
So while Badenoch has successfully neutralised what could have been an almighty crisis for her leadership, and done so effectively, this episode has also clarified a central fault line on the Right, and that line is not going anywhere anytime soon.
James Crouch is head of policy and public affairs at Opinium.
Rather than waiting to be embarrassed, Kemi Badenoch pre-emptively dismissed one of the most senior figures on the Conservative front bench over his dalliance with Reform UK. Not only was this move striking in itself, but more remarkably Badenoch appears to have pulled off something few would have expected from such a crisis: turning an episode that could have seriously destabilised her leadership into a personal PR victory.
Nevertheless, this episode has also brought to the fore some problems that the Conservative Party had, until now, been getting away with disguising.
It is important to emphasise the context in which this crisis occurred. Badenoch acted at a moment when she had already been steadily regaining authority and momentum as Conservative leader. Far from weakening her position, this episode appears to have reinforced it, and this is apparent in the immediate polling.
Opinium’s latest polling with The Spectator suggests that Conservative voters are firmly behind the action she took. Four in five (79 per cent) of those who voted Conservative at the last general election believe Badenoch was right to sack Robert Jenrick, with only six per cent believing she was wrong to do so. Strikingly, this judgement is not confined to her own party. Labour (67 per cent), Liberal Democrat (61 per cent), and Reform UK voters (61 per cent) also largely agree that, faced with clear evidence of an impending defection, she was right to act and remove her shadow justice secretary.
In short, the public as a whole, including many of Jenrick’s potential future voters, appears to agree that the Conservative leader made the correct call. This has strengthened Badenoch’s standing in several important ways.
When Conservative voters are asked directly about this, half (50 per cent) now say they think more positively of Badenoch as a result, while only eight per cent think more negatively of her. Opinion of the Conservative Party itself has also improved, with two in five (41 per cent) 2024 Conservative voters saying they now view the party more favourably following Jenrick’s dismissal. This suggests that Badenoch’s decision has gone firmly with the grain of those who backed the party at the last election.
It is always wise, however, to test direct reactions against broader tracking measures. And here too Badenoch demonstrates she has changed broader perceptions of her for the better. The proportion of Conservative voters who view Badenoch as “decisive” has risen sharply since August, from 42 per cent to 64 per cent. Her approval rating among Conservative voters has also jumped, standing at net +51 (60 per cent approve, 9 per cent disapprove).
Yet this episode has also reinforced longer-term problems for the Conservative Party. Some of the perceptions Badenoch had been working hard to improve have suffered, most notably on party unity. In December, 56 per cent of 2024 Conservative voters thought the party was united; that figure has fallen to only 42 per cent. Now almost a third (32 per cent) of the party’s own voters think it is disunited. The numerous defections to Reform simply had not been a major consideration for ordinary voters until now.
So while Badenoch has successfully neutralised what could have been an almighty crisis for her leadership, and done so effectively, this episode has also clarified a central fault line on the Right, and that line is not going anywhere anytime soon.