Sir Mel Stride is the Shadow Chancellor and MP for Central Devon.
They say the first rule of politics is to learn how to count.
That advice does not seem to have been taken up by Reform UK. Every time they announce a new policy, their sums just do not add up.
Last week Farage announced a new plan to help the hospitality sector. What he failed to mention is the pledges he made would blow a £10 billion hole in the public finances – on top of the vast unfunded promises Reform have already made. He claimed the plan would cost £3bn.
It would actually cost around £13bn. That is not a rounding error. It is the equivalent of putting 2p on the basic rate of income tax. And it exposes a deeper truth. Reform are not offering a serious economic plan, but fantasy economics.
Take VAT. Reform claim they can cut VAT for hospitality to 10 per cent at a cost of £1.9 billion. But official estimates published just weeks ago put the cost at £10.5 billion this year alone, which would rise to nearly £12 billion in the years ahead. That is six times what Reform claim.
Or take their pledge to “reverse” Labour’s jobs tax for hospitality.
In their own documents they acknowledge the tax costs £1 billion for the sector. Yet somehow, in their costings, reversing it magically costs just £100 million. The small print reveals the trick. They would not reverse the tax at all, only partially change it. Even then, the true cost of what they are proposing would be at least five times higher than they admit.
This pattern repeats itself again and again.
Numbers plucked from thin air. Costs buried or disguised. Headlines first, arithmetic later.
Most incredibly of all, Reform claim they would fund this spending spree by reinstating the two-child benefit cap – a policy Nigel Farage himself pledged to scrap just last year. Given Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman voted to lift the cap this week, it doesn’t sound like the Reform team got the memo.
When anyone tries to question them about how much their policies would cost and how they would pay for them, they have no answers.
Lee Anderson was asked about Reform’s costings in a BBC interview. He was asked where their numbers came from and why they were only a fraction of what the official data shows. His response? “I’m not interested in the numbers.” And when I tried to ask him about it on social media? “We answer to the voters. Not you.” These people want to run the country, yet they cannot answer the most basic of questions about their own policies.
What makes this more troubling is the scale of what remains unanswered. Nigel Farage has never explained which of the £140 billion of unfunded commitments Reform made at the last election are still party policy. Voters are left guessing which promises are real, which are aspirational, and which will quietly disappear when challenged by reality.
Economic credibility matters.
Britain is carrying a heavy debt burden in an era of higher interest rates. Every pound borrowed must be serviced by taxpayers. When markets lose confidence, families pay the price through higher mortgage rates and fewer jobs.
That is why, at our Party Conference in October, I set out a clear and costed alternative: £47 billion of savings including from welfare reform, a leaner civil service and lower overseas aid spending. Those choices allow us to cut taxes responsibly – abolishing stamp duty on the family home, scrapping business rates for thousands of high street shops and pubs, and delivering a £5,000 tax cut for young people entering work – all while bearing down on borrowing in line with our Golden Rule.
Labour have nothing to offer but more spending, more borrowing, more welfare. Reform shout louder, but their destination is the same.
Britain deserves better than a choice between denial and delusion. We need clarity, courage and competence in our economic leadership. We need a plan that is ambitious but responsible, radical but credible.
Politicians who make unaffordable promises are simply not being honest with the public.
Sir Mel Stride is the Shadow Chancellor and MP for Central Devon.
They say the first rule of politics is to learn how to count.
That advice does not seem to have been taken up by Reform UK. Every time they announce a new policy, their sums just do not add up.
Last week Farage announced a new plan to help the hospitality sector. What he failed to mention is the pledges he made would blow a £10 billion hole in the public finances – on top of the vast unfunded promises Reform have already made. He claimed the plan would cost £3bn.
It would actually cost around £13bn. That is not a rounding error. It is the equivalent of putting 2p on the basic rate of income tax. And it exposes a deeper truth. Reform are not offering a serious economic plan, but fantasy economics.
Take VAT. Reform claim they can cut VAT for hospitality to 10 per cent at a cost of £1.9 billion. But official estimates published just weeks ago put the cost at £10.5 billion this year alone, which would rise to nearly £12 billion in the years ahead. That is six times what Reform claim.
Or take their pledge to “reverse” Labour’s jobs tax for hospitality.
In their own documents they acknowledge the tax costs £1 billion for the sector. Yet somehow, in their costings, reversing it magically costs just £100 million. The small print reveals the trick. They would not reverse the tax at all, only partially change it. Even then, the true cost of what they are proposing would be at least five times higher than they admit.
This pattern repeats itself again and again.
Numbers plucked from thin air. Costs buried or disguised. Headlines first, arithmetic later.
Most incredibly of all, Reform claim they would fund this spending spree by reinstating the two-child benefit cap – a policy Nigel Farage himself pledged to scrap just last year. Given Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman voted to lift the cap this week, it doesn’t sound like the Reform team got the memo.
When anyone tries to question them about how much their policies would cost and how they would pay for them, they have no answers.
Lee Anderson was asked about Reform’s costings in a BBC interview. He was asked where their numbers came from and why they were only a fraction of what the official data shows. His response? “I’m not interested in the numbers.” And when I tried to ask him about it on social media? “We answer to the voters. Not you.” These people want to run the country, yet they cannot answer the most basic of questions about their own policies.
What makes this more troubling is the scale of what remains unanswered. Nigel Farage has never explained which of the £140 billion of unfunded commitments Reform made at the last election are still party policy. Voters are left guessing which promises are real, which are aspirational, and which will quietly disappear when challenged by reality.
Economic credibility matters.
Britain is carrying a heavy debt burden in an era of higher interest rates. Every pound borrowed must be serviced by taxpayers. When markets lose confidence, families pay the price through higher mortgage rates and fewer jobs.
That is why, at our Party Conference in October, I set out a clear and costed alternative: £47 billion of savings including from welfare reform, a leaner civil service and lower overseas aid spending. Those choices allow us to cut taxes responsibly – abolishing stamp duty on the family home, scrapping business rates for thousands of high street shops and pubs, and delivering a £5,000 tax cut for young people entering work – all while bearing down on borrowing in line with our Golden Rule.
Labour have nothing to offer but more spending, more borrowing, more welfare. Reform shout louder, but their destination is the same.
Britain deserves better than a choice between denial and delusion. We need clarity, courage and competence in our economic leadership. We need a plan that is ambitious but responsible, radical but credible.
Politicians who make unaffordable promises are simply not being honest with the public.