James Crouch, is head of policy & public affairs, at Opinium.
The accusation from Labour peers and ministers is that the Conservatives pushing for a vote on referring Keir Starmer to the Privileges Committee is little more than a political stunt. Starmer himself dismissed it as such, arguing that “we’ve got huge amounts of transparency going on already”. Gordon Brown went further, calling it a “parliamentary game”, while figures such as David Blunkett and Alan Johnson have lined up behind the Prime Minister.
But while Labour focuses on getting through yet another crisis day in Westminster, voters appear to be noticing something else.
We have seen another of those set-piece weeks where Kemi Badenoch has done well – and, more importantly, has been seen to have done well.
When we ask voters how party leaders have responded to the fallout from the Mandelson vetting scandal, Badenoch comes out on top in the latest Opinium/Observer polling. She records a net approval rating of +8 (30 per cent approve, 22 per cent disapprove). That might not sound overwhelming, but set against Keir Starmer at net -40 after rounding (just 15 per cent approve versus 54 per cent disapprove), and even Nigel Farage at net -2, it is no small feat.
Indeed, this is not an isolated moment.
It marks the latest in a run of strong set-piece performances, stretching back to her conference speech and including her handling of Robert Jenrick’s resignation. Badenoch appears to have a knack for these moments: the ability to set out her stall in a way that leaves more voters saying “yes, you’re right” than not.
That said, opposition leaders do not cut through on the back of one or two good weeks. It takes time, repetition, and consistency. It is also worth remembering that the first of these moments was only around six months ago.
Conservatives will quite fairly ask: when does this start to translate into electoral gains? A good week here and there is all very well, but if it does not result in votes, what is it really worth?
This may be the first week where we can tentatively say: it might be starting to matter.
The trend line, at the very least, is clear. Badenoch’s overall net approval now stands at -6 (29 per cent approve, 35 per cent disapprove), and she has been building steadily week after week. On her own terms, she is moving in the right direction.
Even when we bring others into the picture, the movement is notable. For several weeks in a row, Badenoch has opened up the largest approval gap between herself and Nigel Farage. With Farage now on net -18, that puts her 12 points ahead of the Reform leader.
That matters, because it points to something more structurally important. Badenoch is building a profile that gives her a genuine opportunity to win back voters from Reform, while also preventing further drift. Farage remains extremely popular among those currently intending to vote Reform (net +73), but is net negative among current Conservative voters (net -15). By contrast, Badenoch is positive among her own voters (+67) and, crucially, also positive among Reform voters (net +12).
And when voters are forced into a direct choice between Labour and the Conservatives, the picture is shifting too. This week, Badenoch leads Starmer by four points on the “best Prime Minister” question, something the Conservative leader has struggled on until recently.
None of this should be overstated; 43 per cent of voters would currently prefer neither as Prime Minister. That is why Labour’s unpopularity has not automatically translated into a huge Conservative surge.
But electoral dynamics are complicated. With the polls as they are, there won’t be a general election for years. The question is not whether one week changes everything, but whether a pattern is beginning to emerge.
And with each set-piece moment, Badenoch appears to be persuading more voters that she might just be the right person to lead her party after all.
James Crouch, is head of policy & public affairs, at Opinium.
The accusation from Labour peers and ministers is that the Conservatives pushing for a vote on referring Keir Starmer to the Privileges Committee is little more than a political stunt. Starmer himself dismissed it as such, arguing that “we’ve got huge amounts of transparency going on already”. Gordon Brown went further, calling it a “parliamentary game”, while figures such as David Blunkett and Alan Johnson have lined up behind the Prime Minister.
But while Labour focuses on getting through yet another crisis day in Westminster, voters appear to be noticing something else.
We have seen another of those set-piece weeks where Kemi Badenoch has done well – and, more importantly, has been seen to have done well.
When we ask voters how party leaders have responded to the fallout from the Mandelson vetting scandal, Badenoch comes out on top in the latest Opinium/Observer polling. She records a net approval rating of +8 (30 per cent approve, 22 per cent disapprove). That might not sound overwhelming, but set against Keir Starmer at net -40 after rounding (just 15 per cent approve versus 54 per cent disapprove), and even Nigel Farage at net -2, it is no small feat.
Indeed, this is not an isolated moment.
It marks the latest in a run of strong set-piece performances, stretching back to her conference speech and including her handling of Robert Jenrick’s resignation. Badenoch appears to have a knack for these moments: the ability to set out her stall in a way that leaves more voters saying “yes, you’re right” than not.
That said, opposition leaders do not cut through on the back of one or two good weeks. It takes time, repetition, and consistency. It is also worth remembering that the first of these moments was only around six months ago.
Conservatives will quite fairly ask: when does this start to translate into electoral gains? A good week here and there is all very well, but if it does not result in votes, what is it really worth?
This may be the first week where we can tentatively say: it might be starting to matter.
The trend line, at the very least, is clear. Badenoch’s overall net approval now stands at -6 (29 per cent approve, 35 per cent disapprove), and she has been building steadily week after week. On her own terms, she is moving in the right direction.
Even when we bring others into the picture, the movement is notable. For several weeks in a row, Badenoch has opened up the largest approval gap between herself and Nigel Farage. With Farage now on net -18, that puts her 12 points ahead of the Reform leader.
That matters, because it points to something more structurally important. Badenoch is building a profile that gives her a genuine opportunity to win back voters from Reform, while also preventing further drift. Farage remains extremely popular among those currently intending to vote Reform (net +73), but is net negative among current Conservative voters (net -15). By contrast, Badenoch is positive among her own voters (+67) and, crucially, also positive among Reform voters (net +12).
And when voters are forced into a direct choice between Labour and the Conservatives, the picture is shifting too. This week, Badenoch leads Starmer by four points on the “best Prime Minister” question, something the Conservative leader has struggled on until recently.
None of this should be overstated; 43 per cent of voters would currently prefer neither as Prime Minister. That is why Labour’s unpopularity has not automatically translated into a huge Conservative surge.
But electoral dynamics are complicated. With the polls as they are, there won’t be a general election for years. The question is not whether one week changes everything, but whether a pattern is beginning to emerge.
And with each set-piece moment, Badenoch appears to be persuading more voters that she might just be the right person to lead her party after all.