When it comes to Makerfield and the upcoming by-election, the Conservatives don’t get much of a mention. The party finished third there at the general election, but with 4,379 votes was quite a way behind Reform’s second place and Labour’s winning tally.
The newly announced Conservative candidate Michael Winstanley seems like a decent fellow: former Mayor of Wigan, born locally, lived and worked in the area, and even contested the seat 29 years ago. But it is hard to see any one candidate establishing real Tory influence there.
No, the Conservatives will not be pivotal in Makerfield. But the Tory Party is beginning to wonder about how Makerfield could prove pivotal for them.
Over the past week I have had numerous Conservative MPs – including ministers and those in shadow cabinet – as well as CCHQ officials, raise with me the prospect of an early general election.
The conversation tends to follow the same pattern. First, they say, if Andy Burnham wins in Makerfield, expect a Labour leadership coronation where Sir Keir Starmer sets out a timetable to stand down and pass the baton over to Burnham. After all, in the eyes of many Labour MPs he will have proven himself as the man to beat Reform and save the Labour Party.
The narrative works, and you might then experience Reform fall down in the polls while Labour creeps ahead. “You can see the headlines now. It would be the ‘Burnham bounce’,” one shadow cabinet minister tells me. Perhaps that doesn’t last and it is a flash in the pan, or perhaps you wait and let the months roll by to make sure it is real and, sure enough, manage to sustain it. Does your mind then turn to securing your own mandate?
My first instinct, when it was floated to me, was to question why Burnham would risk a historic Labour majority when, if Burnham set up a proper operation, he could get the party under control. But those floating the idea came back with a couple of key arguments.
The first is that two and a half years without a personal mandate may simply not be enough time to achieve what Burnham would want in office. If he became prime minister midway through a parliament, voters might expect tangible change before 2029 – change that would be difficult to deliver in so short a timeframe. Excuses about inherited circumstances might wear thin. After two and a half years, the public could simply conclude that Burnham’s Labour had failed to deliver.
Whereas, if Burnham were to ride a favourable narrative and polling bounce into an early election victory, he could secure a full term in his own right and pursue a more radical programme with time to show results before facing the electorate again. Even a reduced majority compared with 2024 would make managing the parliamentary party considerably easier, with fewer rebellious Labour MPs to contend with. That is argument number one.
Argument number two is about Reform, and the possibility of catching them off guard. “Reform UK haven’t selected all of their candidates – they aren’t close,” one CCHQ adviser tells me, flagging that the party had only recently put out a job advert for a vetting officer, “it means that if they had to field candidates in 650 seats, you would end up with a bunch of nutters”. It would be a great example, an MP added, of how Reform UK are “not ready or serious” to be running government.
So should the Tories be doing something about it? Many of the people who raised the prospect with me suggested that the Conservative Party ought to accelerate their own candidate selections, ensuring the right people have time to be embedded in seats, while also shoring up fundraising and donations.
“It is not like we think it is going to happen straight away with Burnham, and it is not definitely a sure thing, but there is a chance and we need to be aware of that and start getting ready,” one shadow minister tells me.
A lot of donations are still being funnelled into LOTO directly and CCHQ, while shadow cabinet ministers have to find their own personal donors to secure advisers. It was the spring lunch with a packed ballroom at the Dorchester on Wednesday to raise further funds, where I’m told Kemi Badenoch gave a “fantastic” speech and worked the room, going to chat to various tables after.
One Tory source suggests that Burnham’s success could actually offer the Conservatives an opportunity with Tories in the South if he implements a more radical economic agenda.
Perhaps it is paranoia or perhaps it is just being prepared, but either way there is a growing concern about the possibility and a desire for action.