Dr Robert Seely MBE is author of ‘The New Total War’, ConservativeHome foreign affairs columnist and a former Conservative MP.
It’s a truism that foreign and domestic policy feed off each other. There has always been an overlap. The incompetently managed Crimean War in the 1850s paved the way for Edward Cardwell’s military reforms. The 1876 massacre of Christian Bulgarians by Ottoman Turks was skilfully used by Gladstone to attack then Conservative Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli, and the 1956 Suez destroyed the leadership of Sir Anthony Eden. Yet the global and domestic policy are more closely intertwined than ever.
Take the absurdity of net-zero, for example. What began life as, at best, a noble objective and at worst, a piece of virtue signalling with little thought as to the eventual cost, has not only become a destroyer of jobs and industry, as well as an impoverisher of people, but it’s now also directly impacting on our foreign and defence policy, weakening us in the face of our adversaries.
Last week Labour’s announced an easing of sanctions on Russia’s murderous regime. They’ve denied it but the evidence is plain, and not even the BBC, for once, was taken in. This easing was caused by the ongoing crisis in the Middle East. The Government fears the rising cost of oil products; diesel, petrol and aviation fuel. So, we’ll allow imports of Russian oil products provided they have been refined in third countries; India and Turkey most likely. Every penny going into Russian coffers drives his war machine.
As it is, Putin is making billions extra every month out of the Iran war and the consequent rising oil prices. Easing sanctions, especially from the UK which has led the international sanctions process, not only aids the Russian dictator financially but also sends signals that the sanctions regime is brittle.
This psychological signal alone is worth more than the extra cash. Putin is a man who believes in his ability to outthink and outlast the West, what military strategists call ‘strategic patience’. You might have thought this event might have sparked a sobering dose of ‘eco-realism’ from Labour. Any sensible Government would be consigning net zero madness to the bin of history and finding a less damaging way to reduce carbon use. Instead, Labour government is doubling down.
They are intent on blocking all new North Sea exploration licences, whilst buying even more of our gas from Norway and countries much further afield. Even Mark Carney, the former head of the Bank of England, now Prime Minister of Canada and once a net zero zealot, has pivoted. He now wants Canada to be an ‘energy superpower’, including pumping much more oil and gas. Thanks, Mr Carney, for foisting a terrible energy policy on us that you wouldn’t dream of inflicting on your own country (and he now lectures us on Brexit too!) Labour is panicking about imports because we have destroyed our own productive capacity.
Once, the UK had 18 oil refineries, making petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel as well as other oil-derived products that we need in a modern economy – and will continue to need so for decades to come. By 2024, we were down to a handful. Since Labour has come to power, two more, Grangemouth and Lindsey refineries have both shut. Both produced the aviation fuel that we now need to import from our enemies. We close our industry in an act of national self-harm and fund our adversary. Truly, I think the only way to understand this policy is to assume it has been written by Vladimir Putin himself.
Needless to say, it will not make the world or Britain one jot ‘greener’ or ‘cleaner’. It shows an extraordinary gap between domestic intent and global outcomes, exposing the dangerous naivety of our domestic policy as it collides with international realpolitik. As it is, it’s an extraordinarily bad time to be funding Russia. The Ukraine war is becoming more dangerous, not less. Russia is unable to take territory and is suffering an casualty toll of some 30,000 men killed or wounded a month. Some in eastern Europe fear that Putin will generate an international crisis somewhere in the Baltic Sea or the Baltic republics to mobilise the Russian state.
Britain is a particular target of Putin’s hatred. We are also more vulnerable than most in Europe because of our dependency on undersea cables for our communications and our energy. Our run-down Royal Navy has one ship dedicated to undersea support. Russia by contrast has a defence department geared towards deep sea warfare. Yet we drag out feet on defence spending: again, a disconnect between what is needed and what we do. To cover for our domestic energy policy failure, we fund our adversary.
Labour’s net zero madness is already costing jobs and making it more difficult for people to heat their homes. It is now endangering our future. In an era where domestic and foreign practise needs to align, this is not an example of coherent government.