Andy Preston was Mayor of Middlesbrough between 2019 and 2023, as an independent. He is a political commentator
Makerfield was Reform’s election to lose.
It was a Leave-voting seat. Labour is deeply unpopular nationally. Reform had momentum from the local elections and continues to lead many national polls. On paper, they should have stormed it.
Instead, they fell flat. Their campaign felt strangely lifeless, relying on familiar themes about immigration and Broken Britain. Those messages have helped build Reform into a serious force. But when the stakes are high, Makerfield shows us that they aren’t enough.
That should worry Reform supporters.
Their party is good at capturing voters who are angry with the political establishment. But we’ve yet to see it get voters to trust it with real power.
Leading the polls is one thing. Winning trust is another. That distinction may explain why Reform often looks unstoppable in opinion polls and local elections, but struggles when there’s major power at stake.
Nigel Farage wants people to believe the next election will be a straight fight between Labour and Reform. He may be right that British politics is changing fast. He may be right that millions of voters are fed up with the old parties.
But Makerfield showed something else too.
It showed that anger alone does not always get you over the line. It showed that Reform can be the vehicle for protest without yet being trusted as the vehicle for government.
That matters even more now.
Keir Starmer has resigned. Andy Burnham has returned to Parliament and may soon be Prime Minister. The whole political conversation has changed in a matter of days.
Some people will say this proves the Conservatives are finished and that the future is simply Burnham versus Farage.
I don’t think it is that simple.
Aberdeen South matters too.
While everyone was looking at Makerfield, the Conservatives won an important by-election in Scotland, taking the seat from the SNP. That result has not had anything like the same attention, but it should not be ignored.
It showed that the Conservative Party is not dead. It showed that when Conservatives are disciplined, credible and locally relevant, they can still win.
That does not mean the party is out of trouble. Far from it. The Conservatives have a huge amount of work to do if they want to regain the trust of the country.
But it does mean they should not panic. And they should not accept the lazy idea that Reform has simply replaced them.
Reform supporters will say they have momentum. They do. They will say they won major victories in the local elections. They did. They will say they speak for millions of people who feel ignored by Westminster. They do.
But none of that answers the bigger question.
Do enough people trust Reform with real power?
Makerfield suggests not enough do yet.
The Conservatives should take no comfort from Reform’s rise. It is real. It is serious. It reflects deep anger about the state of the country and the failures of the old political order.
But Reform should take no comfort from Makerfield either.
This was a seat they should have been able to win. Instead, they came up short. And now Rupert Lowe’s Restore campaign is causing them problems too, splitting the very vote they need to consolidate.
That is another sign of the challenge facing Reform.
It is not just about mobilising their supporters. It is about persuading others. It is about discipline. It is about credibility. It is about trust.
There will always be another council election and another by-election. There will always be another chance to claim that victory is just around the corner.
But elections that truly test whether a party is ready for power are rare.
Makerfield was one of them.
Aberdeen South was one too, in a different way.
Together, they tell a more complicated story than the one Farage wants to tell.
Reform is a serious force. Labour is in turmoil. The Conservatives are damaged. But the next election has not already been decided, and the centre-right future has not already been handed to Nigel Farage.
The challenge facing Reform is not capturing attention. It is not mobilising anger. It is not winning protest votes.
It is winning the trust of others.
Andy Preston was Mayor of Middlesbrough between 2019 and 2023, as an independent. He is a political commentator
Makerfield was Reform’s election to lose.
It was a Leave-voting seat. Labour is deeply unpopular nationally. Reform had momentum from the local elections and continues to lead many national polls. On paper, they should have stormed it.
Instead, they fell flat. Their campaign felt strangely lifeless, relying on familiar themes about immigration and Broken Britain. Those messages have helped build Reform into a serious force. But when the stakes are high, Makerfield shows us that they aren’t enough.
That should worry Reform supporters.
Their party is good at capturing voters who are angry with the political establishment. But we’ve yet to see it get voters to trust it with real power.
Leading the polls is one thing. Winning trust is another. That distinction may explain why Reform often looks unstoppable in opinion polls and local elections, but struggles when there’s major power at stake.
Nigel Farage wants people to believe the next election will be a straight fight between Labour and Reform. He may be right that British politics is changing fast. He may be right that millions of voters are fed up with the old parties.
But Makerfield showed something else too.
It showed that anger alone does not always get you over the line. It showed that Reform can be the vehicle for protest without yet being trusted as the vehicle for government.
That matters even more now.
Keir Starmer has resigned. Andy Burnham has returned to Parliament and may soon be Prime Minister. The whole political conversation has changed in a matter of days.
Some people will say this proves the Conservatives are finished and that the future is simply Burnham versus Farage.
I don’t think it is that simple.
Aberdeen South matters too.
While everyone was looking at Makerfield, the Conservatives won an important by-election in Scotland, taking the seat from the SNP. That result has not had anything like the same attention, but it should not be ignored.
It showed that the Conservative Party is not dead. It showed that when Conservatives are disciplined, credible and locally relevant, they can still win.
That does not mean the party is out of trouble. Far from it. The Conservatives have a huge amount of work to do if they want to regain the trust of the country.
But it does mean they should not panic. And they should not accept the lazy idea that Reform has simply replaced them.
Reform supporters will say they have momentum. They do. They will say they won major victories in the local elections. They did. They will say they speak for millions of people who feel ignored by Westminster. They do.
But none of that answers the bigger question.
Do enough people trust Reform with real power?
Makerfield suggests not enough do yet.
The Conservatives should take no comfort from Reform’s rise. It is real. It is serious. It reflects deep anger about the state of the country and the failures of the old political order.
But Reform should take no comfort from Makerfield either.
This was a seat they should have been able to win. Instead, they came up short. And now Rupert Lowe’s Restore campaign is causing them problems too, splitting the very vote they need to consolidate.
That is another sign of the challenge facing Reform.
It is not just about mobilising their supporters. It is about persuading others. It is about discipline. It is about credibility. It is about trust.
There will always be another council election and another by-election. There will always be another chance to claim that victory is just around the corner.
But elections that truly test whether a party is ready for power are rare.
Makerfield was one of them.
Aberdeen South was one too, in a different way.
Together, they tell a more complicated story than the one Farage wants to tell.
Reform is a serious force. Labour is in turmoil. The Conservatives are damaged. But the next election has not already been decided, and the centre-right future has not already been handed to Nigel Farage.
The challenge facing Reform is not capturing attention. It is not mobilising anger. It is not winning protest votes.
It is winning the trust of others.