Having long been an occasion that makes prospective university students shudder, today marks A-Level results day. Across the country, more than 300,000 students will rip open their envelopes and scan the fabled piece of paper, hoping that they have achieved the grades needed to progress onto higher education. Eager, it seems, to sign away three years of their youth for a crash course in dealing with a midweek hangover.
But alas, there are apparently more pressing issues afoot, for today is also the day when voters in Clacton go to the polls to decide on their next Member of Parliament. A contest which would typically have political nerds frothing at the mouth, but which this time has provided no such excitement.
It is a race which is rather emblematic of the rot and decay which has taken a hold of 21st century Britain. One’s choice is reduced down to a former MP who rarely ever visits the constituency he proclaims to champion, and a bloke who dresses as a bin. Oh, and Laurence Fox.
For this is effectively a political circus, and the results of the by-election today will tell us very little, if indeed anything whatsoever. One expects Farage to walk the race, with most polls putting him on north of 70 per cent of the vote. This, in itself, is not worthy of being labelled a ‘success.’ Indeed for the contest to be in any form successful for him, it is fair to assume that Reform’s leader requires two things at the very minimum.
The first is that he must secure more than 21,225 votes – the amount he secured in the 2024 General Election. Anything less than this and it will look as though the people of Clacton are beginning to tire of their prodigal son. The second is that he must secure a higher vote share than what Giles Watling amassed in 2019 – which stood at 72 per cent. Only if both of these demands are met can the by-election be considered in any form a success. Anything less, and it looks more like a pyrrhic victory.
Yet, even if Mr Far-Fetched proves able to triumph over the Rest-Is-Politics-listening scrooge that is Count Binface, there remains the rather awkward inconvenience of the Parliamentary Standards investigation restarting. Despite some in Reform believing that a by-election would put an end to the investigation, Farage will continue to be probed upon his return to Westminster.
It remains unclear as to whether Farage will ultimately be found to have done anything wrong, and there is a very real possibility that he is cleared of all wrongdoing. Although, judging by the enthusiasm with which other parties have approached the matter, one might be forgiven for assuming that a conviction has already been handed down. Kemi Badenoch, for instance, has already proclaimed that the Tories will stand a candidate in the “real by-election”, arguing that Farage is merely having a “hissy fit.”
But whether Tory supporters in Clacton are prepared for this supposed, “real” by-election is a different matter altogether. Having spoken to members across the constituency, there have thus far been no conversations about candidate selection or election preparation.
Some I spoke to would very much welcome Giles Watling’s return to the political scene. Seen as a strong, local figure, a number of constituents voiced their approval of the former MP, arguing that only a candidate with strong ties to the community could have any hope of usurping Nigel Farage.
Others, however, fear they will have rather little say in the matter, believing that CCHQ will simply parachute someone in from out of town. A rather frightful prospect, though not a necessarily outlandish one. CCHQ, on the other hand, insists that local residents will have the final say over whoever is put forward – itself not quite a denial that the candidate could come from outside the constituency.
But until such a time, we must mull over the contest which is happening today. As voters arm themselves with a pencil and a record-breakingly long ballot paper they will almost certainly return Farage to the green benches of the Commons. He will no doubt declare victory against the establishment, and argue that the mandate he receives from the people of Clacton outweighs any type of parliamentary investigation that finds him guilty of wrongdoing.
It is a move which comes straight out of the Trump playbook – put the standard rules we all play by to one side, and go straight to the people. We are, after all, living in a democracy are we not? Is it not right that they have the final say?
Whilst Farage parades around the Clacton Leisure Centre, tooting his own horn and boasting that he has the establishment on the run, rival parties should very much prepare for a future contest. That, above all else, should be the takeaway from today’s foregone conclusion.