I suspect we will be denied a Reform UK/Conservative coalition not because of the election result. Or policy differences. But because it is all a bit socially awkward.
The Conservatives gained a seat from the Lib Dems in Harborough. Reform UK gained a seat from Labour in Blackpool and a seat from the Conservatives in Suffolk.
Reform UK gained a seat from Labour in Darlington, a seat from the SNP in West Lothian and seats in South Kesteven from the Conservatives and an independent. The Lib Dems gained a seat from the Conservatives in East Devon.
Labour was already going to struggle to hold such councils as Westminster and Wandsworth. The Chancellor has made the reception its canvassers can expect even less warm.
The Lb Dems gained a seat from the Conservative in Torridge. Reform UK gained a seat from the Lib Dems in Middlesbrough. Labour lost a seat to a residents group in Broxstowe.
Reform UK gained a seat from Labour in Sunderland and a seat from an independent in King’s Lynn & West Norfolk.
The Conservatives gained a seat from the Green Party in Trafford and a seat from an independent in Dumfries & Galloway. But the Green Party gained a seat from Labour in Cheshire East. Reform UK gained seats from the Conservatives in East Sussex and Stratford-on-Avon.
We have had mea culpas from Cameron, Johnson and Sunak for straying from the free enterprise path. The voters need to hear that message.
The mood of an increasingly angry electorate will be to throw Labour out. Yet, Lib Dem MPs are dependent on retaining tactical votes from Labour supporters. So the Lib Dems can’t deny that they would side with Labour in a hung Parliament.
Reform UK gained a seat from the Conservatives in East Lindsey. The Green Party gained a seat from the Lib Dems in Canterbury.
Reform UK gained a seat from the Conservatives in Harborough and two seats from independents in Newark & Sherwood. Labour lost two seats to independents in Burnley. The Lib Dems gained a seat from the Green Party in West Devon and a seat from the Conservatives in Tandridge.
Reform UK gained a seat from Labour in Stevenage and a seat from an independent in Thanet but lost a seat to the Lib Dems in Worcestershire.
The Conservatives lost a seat to the Lib Dems in Somerset. Reform UK gained a seat from an independent in Portsmouth.
The Conservatives gained a seat from Labour in Trafford. But the Conservatives lost a seat to the Lib Dems in Surrey.
Reform UK gained seats from the Conservatives in Redcar & Cleveland and Wychavon. The Lib Dems gained a seat from the Conservatives in Teignbridge.