The match-up between the two sets of numbers is extremely close.
No strategic judgement, no grassroots depth, no clear command structure, no unifying belief system, and a bunch of fractious personalities make for big trouble.
They’ll bank what good news they can get, but net losses of councillors and authorities is not what they had hoped for.
There are no certainties – at least, until it’s too late – so the UK should err on the side of caution.
And as much as it infuriates Brexiteers and Remainers, the strategy appears to be working for him.
For some reason he appears to be surprised at the reaction to his switch of position.
The only worse scores we can find were awarded to Vince Cable and Chris Huhne at their lowest points in the Coalition.
ConservativeHome reveals the full slate of 71 candidates, standing in every region and nation of the UK.
It’s the classic small party dilemma – do you accept recruits and defectors, even when they come with baggage?
The evidence suggests it would be a damaging mistake, but Labour is pressing on regardless.