By Paul GoodmanFollow Paul on Twitter. My take on the EU is that a renegotiation push is unlikely to result in many powers being returned to Britain, and that leaving the Union would bring short-term economic pain but medium-term gain. This is why I would vote to leave the EU were a referendum to take […]
By Paul GoodmanFollow Paul on Twitter. The Queen's Speech takes place tomorrow. Harry Phibbs wrote about its contents over the weekend. Last year, this site published an entire alternative Queen's Speech, and I thought it would be worth listing its measures in full: British Bill of Rights Bill – "In all but the most exceptional […]
By Paul GoodmanFollow Paul on Twitter. David Cameron told Conservative MPs in the aftermath of the disastrous Tory Commons split over the Same-Sex Marriage Bill that the row would be forgotten by 2015. The Prime Minister had a point, in that very few people will allow gay marriage to decide their vote in two years' […]
By Paul GoodmanFollow Paul on Twitter. Ed Miliband is unresponsive to voter concerns about welfare because his electoral base – a relatively small percentage of the electorate – is dependent on it to get by. However, he has started to cobble together a position on immigration because the economic interests of that base have endangered […]
By Paul GoodmanFollow Paul on Twitter. According to the latest ConservativeHome survey – 24% of believe that there will be a minority Conservative Government. 15% believe that there will be a Conservative majority. And 7% believe that there will be a second Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition. Add those figures up, and they suggest that Party members […]
By Paul GoodmanFollow Paul on Twitter. Sue Cameron recently wrote that a four-foot long extension has been fitted on to the Cabinet table, in order to accommodate the 32 Ministers entitled to sit at it. The detail encapsulated the abandonment not of Cabinet Government – that went a long time ago – but of the […]
By Paul GoodmanFollow Paul on Twitter. They divide a third, a third, and a third in our latest survey, issued last Friday morning, about whether to treat UKIP as a friend or enemy when the general election comes in 2015. The question was 34% believe that the party should form a pact with UKIP for […]
By Paul GoodmanFollow Paul on Twitter. John Redwood writes on this site today to advocate a mandate referendum on the EU in this Parliament – a move that would require an Act to make it happen. John Baron continues to lead the campaign for a separate Act in this Parliament, which would write the In/Out […]
By Paul GoodmanFollow Paul on Twitter. I was opposed to the arbitrary and unjust removal of the whip from Howard Flight, a regular contributor to this website, just before the 2005 election. It brought to an end the Commons career of an intelligent and dedicated servant of the Tory cause, and was utterly disproportionate to […]
By Paul GoodmanFollow Paul on Twitter. The next general election will not be concentrated in the counties, but it will decide the government. For this reason, voters will return to the two major parties, the Conservatives and Labour, one of which must lead in forming an administration, if not win outright. Turnout will rise, UKIP's […]
By Paul GoodmanFollow Paul on Twitter. We're now in a position to compare the results against our Local Government Correspondent's tests for all four main parties. Conservatives "Very good result: Retaining even one of the four counties they gained last time – Staffordshire, Lancashire, Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire. Good result: Losing those four, but nothing else. […]
By Paul GoodmanFollow Paul on Twitter. YouGov's Peter Kellner warns wisely in the Guardian against reading today's results forwards into 2015. Yesterday's elections were concentrated in blue counties, not spread across the whole country. The turnout will be much higher in 2015. And so on. However, it's clear that UKIP's progress isn't just bad for […]
By Paul GoodmanFollow Paul on Twitter. Downing Street is moving fast to pre-butt – as it were – today's seat loss results from yesterday's elections. It looks as I write as though UKIP, as expected, has done very well indeed. Remember: Harry Phibbs's success test for them is gains of over 100. OUT from the […]
By Paul GoodmanFollow Paul on Twitter. On this election day, here's an encapsulation of Harry Phibbs's guide to how measure success or failure for the main parties. Conservatives Very good result: Retaining even one of the four counties they gained last time – Staffordshire, Lancashire, Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire. Good result: Losing those four, but nothing […]
By Paul GoodmanFollow Paul on Twitter. Mike Smithson of Political Betting urged me, after I recommended an early break-up of the Coalition, to see this account of life without one – that's to say, of the travails and trials of the Labour Governments of 1974-1979, which had either a slender majority or no majority at […]