Of course, for a pact to work in 2029, the Conservatives and Reform UK would have to not run candidates against one another in winnable seats. But is it conceivable that the two parties could agree to divide the electoral map between them?
Almost everywhere you look, right-wing populism is reshaping politics. The situation facing Kemi Badenoch is not some aberration, but Britain coming into line with the rest of the western world.
Reform’s biggest problem is that all political parties are either ‘policy parties’, focused on what they want to do with power, or ‘campaign parties’, focused on winning it. Reform UK is, unsurprisingly, a campaign party.
While we can’t stop Labour now, we can prepare the first draft of a better future.
If the party ever decides to value experience over novelty again, the first lesson to learn is not to suffer a landslide defeat.
Constructive neutrality between the candidates should be the British stance whatever happens. Leading Tories can help set the tone by refusing to be drawn on their own preferences.
We’ve been here before. Just three years ago Starmer was reeling from the loss of the Hartlepool by-election. His personal ratings were in negative territory and the Tory government was still polling at 40%.
Starmer’s victory is built on shallow foundations, which is why the cracks are beginning to show. A 35 per cent strategy is an opportunit to win back power.
There’s no guarantee that history will repeat itself, but the 2024 hopefuls would be wise to ask what went so well for Cameron and so badly for Davis.
There’s more than enough material here for a meaningful contest – and, luckily, there’s still time to have one.
The temptation for conservatives is to slip into a state of self-indulgent melancholy. But the fact is that we can win – and quite often, we do.
If current trends continue and Donald Trump and JD Vance do go down to defeat to Kamala Harris, what happens to the Republican Party?
Give the Grim Reaper another decade to do his sombre work, and the young tenants of London another ten years to flee their grasping landlords, and the electorates in our safest areas will be transformed.
It won’t do to find a scapegoat or two. Nor should we focus on the last couple of years alone. A defeat this complete has deep roots.
Unlike America, Canada, and Australia, with their federal constitutions, almost all the levers of power are there at the centre, ready and waiting for a prime minister with the strength to seize them.