Gordon Brown entered the Treasury with low inflation, falling unemployment, steady growth, and shrinking taxes and spending. Rachel Reeves would not be so lucky – nor will the Chancellor, if we win the election.
To avoid a 1997-style wipe-out, the aim is to imitate the strategy of John Major’s remarkable victory from five years earlier.
This comedian who came out as a Conservative also explains why Labour, by espousing vengeful moral certainties, has lost the working class.
After the 1983 defeat, Labour’s electoral progress was slow. This time around the Party will face further decline without a bold change in direction.
It’s a contest between Sunderland and Newcastle. But even if Labour does badly in early results, how much will that tell us?
We say again that there is a danger of Conservative expectations getting ahead of the electoral facts.
With a woof-woof here and a moo-moo there, there is a new Tory focus on our feathered, scaled, winged and four-legged friends.
John Major secured more votes than any other Prime Minister in unpromising circumstances – but ‘stretching the elastic of democracy’ would cost the Party dearly.
They can wring their hands one day and ring the bells the next – or vice-versa. After all, they rejoiced when sterling joined the ERM. We know how that one ended.
Plus: May’s first PMQs. Splash! Olive trees in view. Plosh! Ministers reshuffled. Splurge! Cameroons fired. Whoosh! P.S: Time for another dip in my Spanish pool…
A further graft from the remnants of Labour and the LibDems might be the best way of preserving the Union and providing an alternative government to the SNP.
The final result probably won’t differ much from what we expected a month ago. But even small differences matter.
People listened to John Major when he was responding to hecklers.
Most produce results that are more or less what a reader of opinion polls and other electoral data might have anticipated a few months in advance.