The swing was a below average by-election one to an opposition party, and about half the swing to the party that the national polls are showing.
Our region-by-region survey of possible key seats continues with a look at what is shaping up to be one of the key head-to-head confrontations between the Tories and Labour.
Instead of trying to work out what the general election result will be, it might be useful to try to work out what the Conservatives think it will be.
Continuing our ConservativeHome series on the key contests in each region or nation.
Nick Timothy is from this Birmingham seat, which could go blue if anyone can be bothered to vote.
Plus: shortlists for Middlesbrough South and Wakefield; and, new selections and nominations in key target seats across the country.
Erdington modernisation? The most notable feature of Erdington is Spaghetti Junction, “you don’t know where you’re going and could end up anywhere”.
“We would still help the very poor and we would fight injustices, but the Party would adopt a relentless focus on governing in the interests of ordinary, working people.”
We can’t win a workable majority without breaking through in more seats in the urban and suburban North and Midlands.
This week we examine another region where the main parties fought themselves to a stalemate, whilst UKIP positioned themselves for future success.
Our latest battleground profile explores the West Midlands, where Labour and the Tories are locked in something close to a high-stakes, traditional, two-party fight.
The re-warding debate is like the captain of the Titanic busily re-ordering the placement of the deckchairs while his ship is heads towards an iceberg.