Together with other recent by-elections, it is broadly in that electoral territory – but it is also consistent with a least one recent survey suggesting a wipeout for the Conservatives.
Now a safe seat, in 2015 this was one of the most marginal constituencies in Britain – and in 2010 it returned a Conservative MP.
Denying the South East what it needs to grow and prosper with the misguided intention of being ‘fair’ to the rest of the country is detrimental to all in the end.
To the MPs involved, I misquote Obi-Wan Kenobi: strike Johnson down, and he will become more powerful than you can possibly imagine.
Though it’s hard to see how he can find a seat before the next general election – given the hazardous nature of by-elections.
Tory MPs will now get hard evidence of how much political damage Johnson has sustained over Partygate.
Applying a recall mechanism without conditions would rebalance politics by shifting power from officials to voters.
A barrister and senior figure in the Conservative Policy Forum, she will defend Amess’ majority of over 14,000.
This “veteran, surgeon, and barrister” – and ConHome contributor – will inherit Paterson’s majority of almost 23,000.
The further the act of leaving the EU recedes, the more 2019’s Tory voters will move on – as two recent by-elections reminded us.
But this electoral Titan has an Achilles heel – tax rises which, rather than planning or HS2, are the real threat to future Chesham & Amershams.
Annual net migration currently suggests 55,000 more homes a year since the 2014 projections – more than the entire rise planned after the housing row.
The Government’s planning proposals haven’t even gone out to consultation yet – and everyone knows that the current system’s broken.
Lib Dem leader says Conservatives “have taken people for granted” who feel Johnson is “not in tune with traditional Tory values”.
However, the comments from individual voters make it less obvious that these results will predict the next general election.