Together with other recent by-elections, it is broadly in that electoral territory – but it is also consistent with a least one recent survey suggesting a wipeout for the Conservatives.
But if the blue party succumbs to a blue funk, pondering the headline figures only, defeat risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Now a safe seat, in 2015 this was one of the most marginal constituencies in Britain – and in 2010 it returned a Conservative MP.