Together with other recent by-elections, it is broadly in that electoral territory – but it is also consistent with a least one recent survey suggesting a wipeout for the Conservatives.
Now a safe seat, in 2015 this was one of the most marginal constituencies in Britain – and in 2010 it returned a Conservative MP.
John Bercow’s constituents aren’t alone in looking forward to the seat getting a normal MP once more.
Two-thirds of this latest tranche come with a caveat that applicants may be deselected if the boundary review goes ahead.
ConservativeHome can reveal a letter signed by 32 senior activists, including the chairmen of key marginals and target seats across the country.
Continuing our ConservativeHome series on the key contests in each region or nation.
Latest news from round the country.
All the latest candidate selections, shortlists in key marginals and details of tonight’s contests.
We can’t win a workable majority without breaking through in more seats in the urban and suburban North and Midlands.
In the aftermath of the election, we revisit our regional profiles to see how the parties fared compared to expectations.
The better national news for the Tories is not spread evenly across the battleground.
In the first of our series looking at May’s electoral battlegrounds, we explore the fierce fights which are taking place across the North West.