The evidence from the local elections is not that the voters are abandoning the Tories to back Reform or Ukip , but parties of the centre and the left. Their situation is bad, but it can be made worse.
In terms of fiscal policy, if the wider economic picture does not allow the debt to GDP ratio to fall, then the focus of the markets will be on the need to keep the public finances in shape.
From renationalisation of the energy and train companies to a bonfire of environmental and employment regulations, taking back control from Brussels has opened a new range of possibilities that were previously off the menu.
We have been looking at how we can strengthen our laws to provide the police with the clarity they need to stop serious disruption and will come forward with those plans in the coming weeks.
His plan for 2024 is to say: “I may not be most exciting politician in the world. But I’m the more reliable of the two before you. What I promise I then deliver.” It’s unlikely to be enough on its own.
Is he fated to be a fire-fighter, a leader grappling with crisis? Or can he find the political space to deliver a more personal message – perhaps to do with education?
A lower tax burden will be impossible without less supply of government. And for there to be less supply, there must first be less demand.
A party in office for fourteen at the likely time of the general election will find it hard to escape being held responsible for all that’s gone wrong. This can result in a vicious circle of unpopularity leading to division leading to greater unpopularity.
As a former Brexit Secretary, I know that we can use our Brexit freedoms to achieve incredible things. Changes to EU regulations in our five growth industries will mean that we can deliver the very best for our great country,
We now have created a situation where the OBR is effectively setting the immediate stance of fiscal policy. If economic expectations are poor, the finances look poor, so austerity or tax hikes follow – but these in turn make the economy and finances worse.
Rather than an ideological approach, these four ideals – pragmatism, stewardship, One Nation and empowerment – should be the foundations of Conservative economic policy.
There is a limit to what can fairly and sensibly be achieved by raising other taxes and cutting public spending – especially when it comes to pay.
The carnage in the markets is a reminder that she will need all the support from Conservative MPs she can get. That will require handling them with more tact and skill than she has shown so far.
The barrage of letters and calls that some people struggling to make ends meet are receiving is causing grave distress —in some cases, it is even contributing to people becoming suicidal.