The swing was a below average by-election one to an opposition party, and about half the swing to the party that the national polls are showing.
A catspaw of Osborne? A competitor to Policy Exchange? A resource for a modernising leadership candidate? The truth is more subtle and interesting.
Even in an age where institutional attachments run shallow, too many young people are coming to share a deep-seating dislike of our Party.
The Prime Minister’s manifesto will have its flaws, but she has grasped the implications of Brexit more surely than any other senior politician.
Nick Timothy is from this Birmingham seat, which could go blue if anyone can be bothered to vote.