Abolishing IHT would look extraordinarily out of touch to those struggling to pay their bills or worried about the state of the public services – and would undermine any claim to fiscal responsibility.
In terms of fiscal policy, if the wider economic picture does not allow the debt to GDP ratio to fall, then the focus of the markets will be on the need to keep the public finances in shape.
Sunak will hope he is spared a crisis, even if the electoral politics of it could be advantageous.
While no-one should be complacent, the initial evidence is that current problems are specific and not systemic.
Recent problems with Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse are examples of the stress that interest rate rises are putting on the financial system. But relaxing monetary policy now risks entrenching inflation.
Labour like to say we are the only major economy whose GDP has not recovered to prepandemic levels. But looking at GDP at constant prices in national currency the UK economy in 2022, according to the IMF, was one per cent bigger than in 2019.
Homeownership is one of the most widely held aspirational values in British society. It gives security and a sense of responsibility to homeowners, and consistency and stability to families.
The shift to subsidies is more than the timely, targeted and temporary measures that we saw during the pandemic, and signifies a bigger change in global public policy.
A brief series highlighting how the Labour Party used to be intensely relaxed about people getting filthy rich, as long as they paid their taxes.
Yet again we face serious times and grave challenges. It won’t be enough to promise jam to the people. Jam will need to be on the table, and at a price that can be afforded.
In a nutshell, the issue is that tightening monetary and fiscal policy at the same time could force the economy to a stuttering halt.
Control the controllables. So provide assistance, ease the pain, reverse the tax hikes, explain why – and focus on a pro-growth strategy.
If the Government wants to protect our long-term macroeconomic future, this is the correct step to take.