By Tim MontgomerieFollow Tim on Twitter You may have been away for Christmas and the New Year or simply switched off. You may therefore have missed Paul Goodman's four reasons why Cameron couldn't win a majority at the next election. I begged to differ. So did Grant Shapps. Most interesting, however, were the responses of […]
By Paul GoodmanFollow Paul on Twitter. In last weekend's Sunday Telegraph, the foundation of my article arguing that David Cameron won't win an overall majority in 2015 was a estimate made by Peter Kellner of YouGov. He has previously set out why Mr Cameron needs a seven point lead over Labour to gain one – […]
By Tim MontgomerieFollow Tim on Twitter After Stephan Shakespeare I was probably one of the first pessimists about Tory chances at the next election. In October 2011 I launched these Conservative Majority pages because of my concerns that the party still had to climb a huge mountain at the next election. I set out the […]
By Tim MontgomerieFollow Tim on Twitter What's wrong with the Right? Throughout this week we'll be looking at weaknesses in how the conservative movement thinks and how it operates. We'll be thinking about the changes we still need to make in order to end our four election run of failing to win a majority. Today […]
By Tim MontgomerieFollow Tim on Twitter On last night's World Tonight I claimed that the loss of boundary reviews was the single worst political event to hit the Tories since 1992 and Black Wednesday*. Was I exaggerating? When the Parliamentary and Voting Constituencies Bill was passed I celebrated the moment, noting that the introduction of fair-sized […]
By Paul GoodmanFollow Paul on Twitter The Liberal Democrats: now closer to their Coalition partner on economic matters… I studied the durability of a Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition as the last election campaign drew to a close. Three points quickly became clear. First, changes made to the Conservatives under David Cameron's leadership had drawn the parties […]
By Tim MontgomerieFollow Tim on Twitter A few months ago when I started arguing that the next election might be difficult to win it was an unpopular argument. Many in the party thought that Ed Miliband was easily beatable. Things have moved on since then with dark clouds descending across the party. My view hasn't changed […]
By Tim MontgomerieFollow Tim on Twitter Stephan Shakespeare, CEO of YouGov and ConservativeHome columnist, was one of three speakers at last Wednesday evening's How Can The Conservatives Win The Next Election? panel event. I have already briefly reviewed the contributions from Chris Grayling and Matthew Elliott. Stephan began by arguing that, while there was much uncertainty, […]
By Tim MontgomerieFollow Tim on Twitter On ConHome yesterday Paul Goodman dug deeply into Lord Ashcroft's new research and its insights into the Tory challenge among ethnic minority Britons. Today I offer a summary of research undertaken by Policy Exchange (PX) on the North/South divide (one of Majority Conservatism's big themes). Throughout this blog the page […]
By Paul GoodmanFollow Paul on Twitter The dismal illustration above is taken from the biggest-ever study of the attitude of ethnic and religious minorities to the Conservative Party – Degrees of separation, commissioned by Lord Ashcroft and published today. It is a word cloud of associations the party's brand provoked when tested on those who […]
By Tim MontgomerieFollow Tim on Twitter The title of this blog was an observation reportedly made by Andrew Cooper – the PM's polling and strategy adviser – at a recent meeting of Tory MPs. A major survey by the TNS-BMRB polling organisation for the Runnymede Trust (PDF) found that just 16% of Britain's ethnic minority population […]
Paul Goodman looks forward to 2024 and in doing so explains some of the hurdles between the Tories and winning a majority. Tuesday December 31 2024 Dear Prime Minister, Why the Tories last governed with an overall majority in 1992 – over 30 years ago Let me say at the start how grateful I am […]
By Tim MontgomerieFollow Tim on Twitter. Today sees the launch of MajorityConservatism.com*. It's my thinking on how the Tories might win the next election. Over time, however, I hope it will be much more than my thinking. I hope others will critique my thoughts and others will offer alternative ideas as to how we achieve […]