The next generation could end up being a lot more conservative than we all think. Amongst male Gen Z’ers, Biden leads by only four points, compared to a huge 33 points amongst younger women.
While large majorities of voters remain instinctively on side with tackling climate change, once you ask them to reflect on the personal financial costs, they simply become much less supportive and more open to alternative political appeals.
Amidst generally woeful scores, the Conservatives still lead on terrorism and defence, and run Labour close on law and order, asylum, and – still – the economy.
Imagine it without any representation from Oxfordshire or Buckinghamshire, and only a handful of MPs from Berkshire and Surrey combined; still representing parts of Blackpool, Middlesborough and Walsall, but not Surrey Heath, Witney, or Wokingham.
Voters want radicalism, excitement, and a clear alternative to what they see as a failed Mayor. High up their list of priorities for their next Mayor is someone who is ‘not a career politician’.
Even were this not the case, such ratings only weakly correlate to general election outcomes. There is no getting around the hard work of repairing the Party’s standing with voters.
Bear in mind that if a week is a long time in politics, 16 months is an eternity. A lot can happen between now and October 2024, surely the earliest date for the general election.
He has already won back large numbers of voters since he entered Number 10, and both the polls and the focus groups confirm that many more are prepared to wait longer before making up their minds.
New research from Onward suggests that despite their reputation, this generation has plenty of small-c Conservative instincts.
The Government’s failure to do anything about London’s housing crisis means the capital is now starting to export voters into its wide commuter belt.
Sunak deserves more time to deliver on his pledges. In any case, the decision today is about choosing councillors with a practical, value for money, approach.
We should be winning back seats lost in 2019. But I have found big dissatisfaction with the national direction of Government on the doorstep.
From Sandwell to Solihull, Bromsgrove to Wolverhampton, Dudley to Tamworth, we have been out to help the amazing local teams who have been working so tirelessly to hold and gain Council seats.
His laudable focus on immediate priorities cannot forever excuse failing to address the big strategic challenges facing Britain.
Time will tell, but my impression is the way the announcement was made – and, crucially, reported – means it’ll have a marginally negative impact overall.