Where the Tories have rallied in Scotland, Labour appear to have done so here. There is a broad range of possible Conservative targets, but only a few anticipated gains.
Amidst the gathering leadership election debate, there is a lack of focus on who such voters are and where they live.
Another region, another strong Conservative result against a mismanaged Labour campaign plagued by local miseries.
The third piece in our series examines the four-way battle for the hearts and minds of voters in Wales.