While UKIP and Reform UK no longer present a credible threat to the Tories, the Lib Dems and Greens are building momentum.
Voters at this week’s by-election in Old Bexley and Sidcup are angry with the Prime Minister, but do not appear to have settled on anyone better.
Plus: my interview with Richard Tice. Can he keep the Conservative Party honest?
The centre isn’t where he or ConservativeHome or anyone else wants it to be. It’s where it is – “Far From Notting Hill”.
Without proper constituency-level polling there is always room for doubt, but it looks as if Labour’s grip on Cardiff Bay is weakening.
Also: Johnson and Gove set to meet to plot their pro-Union strategy as a Tory MSP defends to Nigel Farage’s new party.