Together with other recent by-elections, it is broadly in that electoral territory – but it is also consistent with a least one recent survey suggesting a wipeout for the Conservatives.
The so-called Red Wall want us to set out a bold strategy for freedom and growth. If we do, voters lost at by-elections will return.
I called recently for the Cabinet to tell Johnson that the game is up, and Dowden’s resignation is the closest that any of them have got.
However, the comments from individual voters make it less obvious that these results will predict the next general election.
Our focus groups in Wakefield are a wake-up call for the Government: responsible adults neither want nor need nannying.
Congratulations to Nadeem Ahmed and Helen Hurford.
Though Sue Gray waits in the wings, carrying her scythe and lantern. Will we see her report next week?
Despite the grubby circumstances in which this contest became necessary, it will be a vital battle ahead of the next general election.
Tory MPs will now get hard evidence of how much political damage Johnson has sustained over Partygate.