According to a YouGov poll conducted only six days after the atrocities, a staggering 49 per cent of 18–24-year-olds in the UK ‘don’t know’ whether Hamas is a terrorist organisation. This is obscene and abhorrent.
Amidst generally woeful scores, the Conservatives still lead on terrorism and defence, and run Labour close on law and order, asylum, and – still – the economy.
Even were this not the case, such ratings only weakly correlate to general election outcomes. There is no getting around the hard work of repairing the Party’s standing with voters.
The Government’s failure to do anything about London’s housing crisis means the capital is now starting to export voters into its wide commuter belt.
Together with other recent by-elections, it is broadly in that electoral territory – but it is also consistent with a least one recent survey suggesting a wipeout for the Conservatives.
But if the blue party succumbs to a blue funk, pondering the headline figures only, defeat risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.
These results are in effect identical to a YouGov poll published earlier today. If both we and they are right, Sunak needs a massive game-changer to turn this contest round – and he’s running out of time.
Taken together, our survey and YouGov’s polling suggest that the Chancellor has narrowed the gap between him and his opponents among Party members. But he is running out of time in which to get ahead.
It would also make a mockery of any hustings held later than early August, since many of those present will by then already have voted.
The public will react very badly if they come to see the strikes as essentially political, but the Conservatives won’t want to appear unable to govern.
Our findings and theirs are in the same territory even allowing for six months’ or so difference. There is no decisive view on who any replacement should be.
To date, Boris Johnson has been able to “dodge, duck, dip, dive, and dodge”. But a more than usually chaotic U-turn narrows his options.
It is absurd that people willing to work must instead sit on their hands and depend on state benefits.