But if the blue party succumbs to a blue funk, pondering the headline figures only, defeat risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.
These results are in effect identical to a YouGov poll published earlier today. If both we and they are right, Sunak needs a massive game-changer to turn this contest round – and he’s running out of time.
Taken together, our survey and YouGov’s polling suggest that the Chancellor has narrowed the gap between him and his opponents among Party members. But he is running out of time in which to get ahead.
It would also make a mockery of any hustings held later than early August, since many of those present will by then already have voted.
The public will react very badly if they come to see the strikes as essentially political, but the Conservatives won’t want to appear unable to govern.
Our findings and theirs are in the same territory even allowing for six months’ or so difference. There is no decisive view on who any replacement should be.
To date, Boris Johnson has been able to “dodge, duck, dip, dive, and dodge”. But a more than usually chaotic U-turn narrows his options.
It is absurd that people willing to work must instead sit on their hands and depend on state benefits.
Though it is early days, events in Ukraine may have reduced the public’s blame for the government for a decline in living standards.
In the event of higher bills and a protracted conflict, polls that indicate a potential softening of support may understate it.
He is still viable with the public if he is constantly compared to Starmer as the alternative.
The Government plans to scrap the legal requirement for people to self-isolate if they have the virus; a move that has huge implications.
They will see both clinical and non-clinical staff supplement full-time workers during times of high demand.
The pollster finds the same two future leadership front runners as our survey – but in reverse order.