The workings of the ConservativeHome monthly survey must be explained once again. Any Party member can join the panel that returns the online survey by sending a copy of their membership certificate to news@conservativehome.com (or else other evidence of membership).
So since this panel is self-selecting, why do other media publicise the findings? We believe that the answer lies in the survey’s record during the 2019 Tory leadership election. We conducted four surveys during the membership stage of the contest that saw Boris Johnson pitted against Jeremy Hunt.
Our first, compiled as ballot papers were going out (a few had already been received) found Johnson 67 per cent, Hunt 29 per cent, “Other” four per cent.
Our second, a week later, had Johnson on 72 per cent and Hunt on 28 per cent.
Our third and final survey, conducted last weekend, found Johnson on 73 per cent and Hunt on 27 per cent.
The actual result saw Johnson take 66 per cent to Hunt’s 34 per cent. So our first survey, taken at the time when many ballot papers were being returned, was within a single point of Johnson’s eventual total.
Giving panel members a don’t know-type opt-out (“other) looks like the wrong call, in retrospect, since it didn’t force a choice between the two candidates. But getting the eventual winner’s total almost spot-on when many ballots were being returned isn’t a bad result at all for a self-selecting survey.
I know of only one poll of Party members at the time carried out by a major polling company. A YouGov poll for the Times carried out at about the same time as our second survey above had Johnson on 74 per cent and Hunt on 26 per cent.
Our three surveys were thus all in the odd position of being closer to the final result than YouGov’s poll, although the difference between its finding and our last two surveys is very marginal indeed. But you may see now if you didn’t before why our survey is paid such attention elsewhere.