Back in April, the latter highlighted how the combined total expecting a form of Conservative victory had fallen from 78 percent in November – pre-Partygate, cost-of-living crisis, and Chancellor’s tax travails – to 61 percent.
Today, we can see that confidence has fallen to only 50 percent of our readers. Or, more accurately, 49.5 percent – hence the headline.
Back in April, of that 61 percent total, 45 percent expected a majority, 12 percent a minority government, and 3.47 a Conservative-led coalition. Today, those figures are 35.44 percent, 9.41 percent, and 4.65 percent, respectively.
The drop in expectations for a majority likely has several causes. Partygate, the poor local election results, and the continuing Tory lag in the polls provide a poor platform for a summer likely to be dominated by stories of stagflation and strikes. The Ukraine bounce of March has also worn off.
Over half of our survey called for the Prime Minister to go last Monday. Our panel also placed him at the bottom of our Cabinet league table. Now that only just over a third of our respondents expect a majority at the next election suggests many members believe the Prime Minister is a drag on the party’s prospects.
Here are the full figures for all the surveys since our December post:
May: 50 (49.5) percent
April: 61 percent
March: 72 per cent
February: 72 percent
January: 66 percent
December: 67 percent
I suggested recently that the Prime Minister’s premiership has gone the same way as Edward Heath’s: u-turns, strikes, oil crises, and inflation. Our panel’s pessimism, coupled with Number 10’s repeated threats of a sudden election, suggests Johnson might also mirror Heath in his performance at the ballot box. Who governs Britain indeed.