As I write, our list of runners and riders for the Conservative leadership contains no fewer then 17 Tory MPs. Some have withdrawn from the contest, but we will keep their names up for the record; others have merely declared a wish or intention to stand; others still are clearly serious contenders.
An early question for the new 1922 Committee Executive, which will be elected tomorrow, is whether this number risks making their Party ridiculous. With all due respect, neither John Baron, Rehman Chisti nor Bill Wiggin are going to be the next Conservative leader. If any of them think they are, the sooner they are disabused of the illusion, the better.
The new Executive should therefore, as I have argued previously on this site, set a minimum threshold for nominations: I have suggested 25 MPs, others ten per cent of the whole. Last time round, it was eight: I believe the Executive, this time round, will go higher, which will help to pare the contest down to essentials.
So by the time nominations close on Tuesday evening – if the expected timetable is agreed – we should be down to the serious players. By Wednesday evening, on this timetable, the first ballot will be complete. Assuming that it doesn’t produce a winner, a second ballot is expected to follow on Thursday.
By next weekend, then, most of the names on our list of 17 will be dust. The Conservative Parliamentary Party will by then be down to a smaller cluster of candidates. (The precise number will depend on how many can get the required number of MPs to nominate them and any required minimum percentage of votes in any ballot.)
The week after that the expected timetable will see this cluster whittled down to a final two candidates by the time the Commons breaks for recess on Thursday July 21st. At that point, the membership stage of the election will begin: on the timetable disclosed to me, the new Conservative leader will be in place when Parliament reassembles on September 5.
Graham Brady is the returning officer for the election, and will put a timetable proposal to the Party Board. It will doubtless be reported that the Party is in no position to organise hustings or that its membership list isn’t up to date. Perhaps Boris Johnson loyalists on the Board, if there are any, will try to spin matters out.
Whatever happens next, the timetable for the Parliamentary stage of the contest is tight. Tomorrow, I expect to write about the challenges facing the country, and how candidates might respond to them. On Tuesday, I hope to probe the likely candidates themselves and their platforms. But for today, I want to ask: what are their chances? And how is the contest shaping up?
Let’s start on the Party’s left-to-centre. As I write, Tom Tugendhat, one of the two main candidates from that block, has more support than Jeremy Hunt, the other. The former’s task will be to squash the latter, hold off centrist candidates from squeezing his vote, and so make it into the final two.
Next, the right-to-centre. Here, Suella Braverman is attracting support from European Research Group members and committed culture warriors. Will Lord Frost be next? Her aim will be to elbow out the more senior Liz Truss, who is yet to launch but is declaring supporters regularly, and Kemi Badenoch, who will be fishing in the same pond and in others.
I cite two candidates from either wing of the Party, Braverman and Tugendhat, because both contain MPs with ideological reasons to vote, which are strong motivators. And in the early rounds, having an established base matters. Iain Duncan Smith’s leadership campaign in 2001 was a textbook example of how an outsider with committed support can win.
This leaves candidates who are more likely to draw votes from all parts of the party: Rishi Sunak, Sajid Javid, Nadhim Zahawi, Penny Mordaunt, Badenoch and perhaps others – all of whom may be aided by the non-candicacy of Ben Wallace, who topped our last Next Tory Leader poll, and announced yesterday that he will not stand.
The aim of all these will be to power through the middle, taking votes from left to right alike – and in the case of Sunak establish a bandwagon affect by attracting support early, thus suggesting to wavering Conservative MPs that, if they want to back the winner, Sunak is the man. Hence his quick-out-of-the-traps campaign video and policy announcements.
Javid, Zahawi and Mordaunt have been slower out of the blocks – as for that matter has Truss. All will look for votes from across the party, but will be especially motivated to halt any Sunak bandwagon before it gets going, and gain momentum at his expense. As I write, Mordaunt is running second for supporters.
Sunak’s early backing at the moment shows a mix of left and right but I suspect that, for all his Leave credentials, Sunak may find it harder to get into the Spartan end of the vote than that of the more establishment-minded Tory centre-left. The logic of events suggests that he will want to squeeze Tugendhat/Hunt’s support.
These are the very earliest of early days but, were Sunak to reach the membership stage, he would face a real difficulty – namely, the bruised, resentful, brooding Prime Minister, who retains support among activists, for all his lousy standing in our recent Cabinet League Tables. This morning’s papers are full of claims about his intended revenge.
When we last asked our panel whether Johnson should stay or go, it divided roughly 40/50. YouGov’s more recent poll found that his support had shrunk further – but, either way, some of those who wanted him to continue as Tory leader won’t merely be party loyalists; they will be committed supporters, to whom Johnson will always be the hero who delivered Brexit.
To some of them, a great man has been brought low by political pygmies – not to mention Remain fanatics, Emmanuel Macron, Bilderbergers, the bloke in the kimono with the baseball bat, globalists, Dominic Cummimgs, Davos-goers and hand-wringing Tory MPs. They will want revenge on the man most blamed in Johnson Central for bringing him down.
Jacob Rees-Mogg has already torn a strip off Sunak; Nadine Dorries is always up for a rumble in the jungle. I doubt whether anything either of these two get up to is ordered by the Prime Minister. But by the same token, I can’t see Johnson being backward, were Sunak to make the membership stage, about coming forward.
He may not be the only one: today’s papers are full of briefings by some candidates against others – or at least purport to be. I’m sure that some of the claims are not officially approved, but reckless spirits should clearly take stock. It will do the winner little good were he or she to destroy their opponents, trash the Johnson Government’s record…and then inhabit a wasteland. Not to mention set Keir Starmer up to win.
Sometimes, bandwagons make it to the finishing line, as Johnson’s own did in 2019. More often, they get bogged down in mud, as David Davis’ was in 2005, or tipped over and torched by a peasants’ revolt, as Michael Portillo’s was in 2001. Sunak is an early front-runner, and already enjoys a front-runner’s fate – to be a target.