The last survey of our ConservativeHome panel of Party members, published last Tuesday, gave Penny Mordaunt as its first choice for Next Tory Leader. Kemi Badenoch was second.
The margin between them was narrow: Mordaunt led Badenoch by under ten votes in over eight hundred. In a run-off at that point, the former led the latter by 46 per cent to 40 per cent.
Since then, Badenoch has continued to gain positive write-ups in the publications that this site’s readers see a lot of: the Daily Telegraph and the Spectator.
Meanwhile, Mordaunt’s record, views and character have come under fire – not least from Lord Frost, who is currently enjoying cult status among a slice of Party activists.
Here on ConservativeHome, I’ve liked the look of Badenoch’s campaign, though I think that these are early days in the contest, and that her credentials need testing (as do those of all the candidates).
And I’ve asked whether Mordaunt has enough support among Party movers and shakers to form a coherent Government if she becomes Prime Minister in September.
The sum of all this, plus ConservativeHome’s own hustings yesterday afternoon and Channel 4‘s yesterday evening, has clearly had an effect, if the survey is correct.
Mordaunt’s ship is becalmed. Last Tuesday, she held 19 per cent of the vote. Today, her share has dropped by a point – and she is no longer top of the ballot or even second in it.
Badenoch was doing suggestively well last Tuesday, and today she is doing even better. Then, she was on the same percentage as Mordaunt, and a mere eight votes behind. Now, she is on 31 per cent, thus opening up an eleven point lead.
Liz Truss rises to push Mordaunt into third place, up from eleven per cent to 20 per cent. Sunak is fourth on 19 per cent, nine votes behind Mordaunt. Tugendhat is fifth on eleven per cent.
So as the Parliamentary ballots proceed and unsuccessful candidates drop out, the panel’s view is firming up. “Other”, our bolt-hole for refuseniks, was small last time at six per cent and is smaller still today at three per cent.
All in all, the more the panel has chewed over Mordaunt, the more its doubts have grown; and the more it’s seen of Badenoch, the more it’s liked her.
Back in the hectic world of the Parliamentary ballots, Sunak leads with 101 votes, Mordaunt trails with 83, Truss is third with 64, Badenoch has 49 and Tugendhat 32.
This weekend, the Westminster consensus is that Tugendhat will go out tomorrow, having failed to gain enough from Nadhim Zahawi’s and especially Suella Braverman’s transfers to overtake Badenoch.
Truss, meanwhile, is fighting to get ahead of Mordaunt and make it to the final ballot. Sunak isn’t guaranteed a place in it, but his presence is overwhelmingly likely. He came out fighting in the Channel 4 hustings and is moving into a faster gear.
Truss polled poorly in the wake of them, coming bottom of an Opinium survey of “normal voters”. The Conservative leadership election will of course be decided not by them, but by Tory MPs and then Party members.
Nonetheless, the scene is set for Badenoch’s campaign to attempt the collapse of Truss’s, on the ground that their candidate can beat all comers in a final with members, and go on to seize the public’s imagination.
Tomorrow, we will publish our run-offs between the five candidates, and see if there is any substance for any such claims. Not to mention how the most likely finalists perform against each other.
For as well as Badenoch v all comers, we will have Sunak v Mordaunt, Sunak v Truss, Mordaunt v Truss – and of course Tugendhat’s scores against everyone.
Eight hundred and fifty-one people participated in the survey, which was carried out today – after both yesterday’s ConservativeHome hustings and the Channel 4 debate,
