Anthony Browne is MP for South Cambridgeshire, the Chair of the Conservative backbench Treasury Committee and a member of the Treasury Select Committee.
As political commentators have said, the new Prime Minister – a racing certainty to be Liz Truss – will have the worst in tray of any Prime Minister since Margaret Thatcher.
Surging inflation, cost of living crisis, waves of strikes, energy crisis, predicted recession, hospital waiting lists and the war in Ukraine will not just keep the Prime Minister busy, but define whether or not she is seen as a success. They will take up the overwhelming focus of their attention. But here nine other critical things shed will also have to spend her time and energy on:
- Unite the party: after the prolonged and bruising leadership battle, in which blue on blue attacks became as frequent as morning media rounds, the Prime Minister must bring the Parliamentary party and voluntary party back together. A permanent fissure will serve no one but Labour (see 9 below). MPs keep saying we must unite behind the leader, but there will be plenty of bruised careers and egos. Truss must reach out to reconcile the party.
- Be competent: the Conservatives’ electoral winning success is in large part because of our historic reputation for competence. Vote Labour if you want to feel virtuous, but vote Conservative if you want things done. But over the last five years or so, that reputation has taken a battering. It is essential to have a period of calm, competent delivery. The new Prime Minister needs to appoint a ministerial team who know they need to be more focussed on getting things done than grandstanding.
- Project a vision for Britain: in times of trouble, the country needs to know where it is heading. One of the Boris Johnson’s weaknesses is that he did not unite the party and government around a mission for the country. The new Prime Minister will not just need to communicate a positive, optimistic and Conservative vision for the UK, but make sure the country buys into it. Truss has been doing that throughout her campaign, but she will need to take her vision to the nation.
- Make Brexit a success: if the public come to see it as a mistake, they will blame the Conservatives for it, and many voters will not forgive. It is essential, particularly in Remain majority seats like mine, that Brexit is seen to be a success. The Government has been trying to do this, but it needs to notch it up a gear. The Northern Ireland border clearly needs sorting, but we also need to make the most of the new opportunities. Votes in Parliament this week on financial services reform bill and the new Australian trade deal are good steps.
- Develop a public service reform agenda: for the last few years, Brexit and the pandemic have meant that the Government has not had a clear retail agenda on public service reform. What do we want to do with schools, hospitals and the police? How do we make sure people get their driving licences and passports, and that public servants are actually serving the public? Truss used to be deputy director of the think tank Reform, which focused on public services, so I am sure she is buzzing with ideas. In general, there needs to be a lot more concentration on outcomes (bring crime rates down) rather than inputs (the number of police hired). On health, I think a lot more emphasis needs to be put on ensuring patient choice, something the Government is starting to do.
- Keep the red wall and blue wall seats on side: the new Prime Minister must keep together the political coalition that delivered the election victory in 2019. The Conservatives must continue to appeal to both Workington man as well as the traditional Tory shires, in the historical Labour heartlands of the north as well as new Liberal Democrat-facing seats in the South such as mine. It will be a fine balancing act.
- Make sure the machinery of government works: Governments are constantly frustrated that the civil service makes it difficult to deliver their policy objectives. Ministers pull a lever, and nothing happens. A version of this has come up in the campaign with focus on Treasury “orthodoxies”, which I have written about before on this site. From Number 10 to the Cabinet Office, and more widely across Whitehall, the new Prime Minister will need to keep half an eye on the effectiveness of the civil service. You can’t deliver something without considering how you deliver it. However most reforms will take considerable time, and unlikely to have much impact before the general election. The focus will need to be on any potential quick wins.
- Restore trust in free enterprise: Public confidence in free enterprise has taken a battering in recent years, which has effectively shifted the economic middle ground towards Labour. If the Conservatives offer up Labour-lite, it makes it more likely voters will go for the real thing. From taxation being at the highest for 70 years, to water companies spilling sewage, to profiteering by energy companies and the effective renationalisation of rail, it has become more difficult to make the case for free enterprise. But it is central to the Conservative mission, and public scepticism about free enterprise will make it more difficult for a Conservative government to deliver the policies it wants to. My discussions with businesses show they are also sceptical about whether the Government is on their side. Both Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak are free marketeers by instinct, but the new Prime Minister needs to have the courage of their convictions.
- Win the next general election: The next election is widely expected to be in 2024, just two years away, although the new PM could call it earlier. Clearly we want the Conservatives to win, but we should not underestimate the challenge: never before has a party won five general elections in a row (following victories in 2010, 2015, 2017, 2019). Labour and the Lib Dems will be preaching the “time for change” narrative. At present, we are languishing in the polls, but that is probably not surprising given the leadership contest and caretaker government. However, if the Conservatives keep their reputation for being good on the economy, then the public may decide to give us another chance. Two years of competent government, delivering for the people, and clearly supporting them in the cost of living crisis, could see a dramatic turn around in the polls.