Anthony Browne is MP for South Cambridgeshire, the Chair of the Conservative backbench Treasury Committee and a member of the Treasury Select Committee.
The Israel-Palestinian conflict may not have troubled the front pages of the world’s papers much recently. There is no active peace process, and the US does not have a peace envoy. Attacks have been limited. It is a weary stalemate, with lots of suffering.
But that doesn’t mean things aren’t changing. With the world’s attention elsewhere – pandemics, invasions – it has been little noticed that the plate tectonics of the Middle East are shifting quickly. Speaking to political and business leaders on both the Israeli and Palestinian side on a trip a few weeks ago, there is increasing speculation that we could be at a historic turning point.
In a noticeable contrast to when I last went there, with Tony Blair when he was Prime Minister, the view that there is a pathway for the previously unresolvable conflict to be resolved is gaining momentum. Hopelessness is giving way to hope. “There is a new game in town” as one long time observer put it. There are also calls for the UK to play a central role – and there are some simple constructive steps it could take now.
The seismic changes are the Abraham accords, brokered by the US. Previously most of the Arab world did not recognise Israel’s right to exist, and had no ties with it – no trade, no flights, no visitors, no diplomatic recognition. But in 2020 the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain signed normalisation agreements with Israel, followed later by Morocco and Sudan. Now at Tel Aviv airport a large proportion of departure signs are to Arab nations – there are over 30 flights a week from Israel to UAE. They are dynamic economies that are geographically close, and the excitement of Arab and Israeli business people about the opportunities is almost tangible. This normalisation process is expected to continue across the Arab world. Agreement with Saudi Arabia is said to be close.
This widening Arab recognition of Israel changes the dynamics of the Middle East. The stand off is no longer between the Arab world and Israel, but between Palestinians and Israel. Palestinian leaders are generally not happy with the accords.
As one Palestinian minister said to me:
“Even if Israel normalises relations with all Arab nations, that does not mean the Palestinian issues have been solved. Recognition should be a prize for withdrawal – Israel has collected the prize but has not withdrawn.”
But what the Abraham accords do show is that change is possible, and gives permission to Arabs and Jews to say they like each other. It increases the international political incentive for peace and removes many of the obstacles. Most importantly: it creates a belief that a peaceful solution is possible. That belief is a precondition for peace, since without it peace cannot happen. If each side feels hopeless, it entrenches the status quo.
There is a view that political leaders on both sides benefit from the current “managed conflict”, and don’t really want permanent peace. Polling among Palestinians shows clearly that the more conflict there is the more support there is for Hamas, the proscribed terrorist group that controls Gaza and would likely win any election in the West Bank. Confidence building helps the more moderate Fatah, that controls the West Bank but has not had an election for 18 years.
Palestinian leaders believe that Israel is not really interested in a two state solution, so they can carry on their illegal settlements in the West Bank. The rocket attacks on Israel from Gaza that have killed over 1000 Israelis have now largely been neutered by the formidable Iron Dome defence, which shoots down any Palestinian rockets before they kill anyone. Life in Israel is pretty good. In the meantime, Palestinians live in misery in Gaza and the West Bank.
Polling by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research shows that support for a two-state solution has been falling among Palestinians in recent years, and distrust of Israel rising. But it also shows that the more economically integrated Palestinians are with Israel, the more they want a peaceful solution. Palestinians suffer very high unemployment, and salaries are 10 times higher in Israel than in Palestine. Over 200,000 Palestinians go to Israel for work every day (mostly from West Bank), earning a living for their families, and they overwhelming see their future prosperity tied to that of Israel. Only about 15,000 Palestinians are permitted to travel from Gaza to Israel every day for work, but they and their families are so supportive of a peaceful solution that one estimate is that if those permits were increased to 50,000 a day then Hamas would lose support.
The Israel Palestinian conflict is one where both sides are victims, in different ways and at different times in history, and both have huge legitimate historical and current causes for grievance. There will be no solution unless both sides want it. But it is clear that both sides do want a lot from each other. The list of Israeli demands include Palestinians recognising Israel’s right to exist, stopping teaching hatred of Jews in Palestinian schools, teaching Palestinian children Hebrew just as Jewish children learn Arabic, stopping launching missiles at Israeli communities and most fundamentally of all – stop paying Palestinians to murder Jews. There is a “pay to slay” Palestinian law that the Palestinian Authority will pay a regular income to a terrorist and their family who kills Jews.
The list of Palestinian demands includes recognition for Palestine, ending of the occupation of the West Bank, opening the border with Israel, the end (and withdrawal) of settlements on the West Bank, support for economic development and control over their own water and energy supplies. There are many frustrations that could be tackled – Palestinian business people complain about the bureaucracy of getting goods across the border with Israel triples the cost and makes them uncompetitive, and that they cannot get permits such as to visit the headquarters of Google and Microsoft in Tel Aviv.
When both sides want so much from each other, there is space for a deal. There needs to be a clear programme of building confidence between the communities. Political leaders on both sides told me that with the US absent from the pitch, the UK could and should play an important role. It could help broker little agreements that show progress is possible. Here is one concrete proposal: the UK should set up a fund, with British, Israeli and Palestinian directors, which provides grants for projects that simply bring Palestinians and Israelis together, helping understanding. The Save a Child’s Heart charity involves Israeli and Palestinian doctors working together in Israeli hospitals to help Palestinian children who need heart surgery – as well as saving lives, it has performed small miracles in bringing Palestinians and Jews together. There need to be more projects which build bridges between the communities.
The Israelis have a popular saying that if a room plunges into darkness because a light bulb blows, you can either rail against the darkness and the problems it causes, or get a torch and change the bulb. It is time to get the torch. There is a new game in town.